Bitcoin Hits $17,000, But Is It Too Early To Call The All Clear On The Bear Market?

Bitcoin is retracing its recent week losses, and it’s about to reclaim the support lost during the FTX debacle. The number one crypto by market capitalization is displaying some short-term strength as macroeconomic conditions continue to improve. 

Other cryptocurrencies in the crypto top 10 by market cap are seeing profits. Dogecoin (DOGE) and Ethereum (ETH) are leading the rally with double digits gains in the previous week. As of this writing, Bitcoin is moving sideways between $16,900 and $17,000 and adjacent levels. 

Yesterday, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at moderating the monetary policy. The financial institution has been increasing interest rate hikes to mitigate inflation. 

The market is feeling the effects of the Fed’s policies. Unemployment metrics are increasing, the U.S. economy is slowing down, and Commodities maintain their bearish trajectory, but most importantly, the Real Estate sector took some massive damage. 

Recent data indicates that homes sale in the U.S. is experiencing their worst period in decades. This data hints at lower inflation but might spell issues for this country’s economy. If the Fed fails to act, the U.S. might enter a recession. 

Buyers evaporating due to interest rate hikes and new 30 yr cost shock of over double from 1 yr ago for monthly payment amt. Owners not listing or less likely to. Other owners sitting on high 2’s or 3% mortgages they’ll never move from. Supply & demand both dwindling, who wins? https://t.co/pZN96vS27a

— Evan Kirkpatrick (@evankirkpatrick) December 1, 2022 

The Fed might be willing to pivot on its monetary policy in this context, thus allowing Bitcoin and risk-on assets to rally and extend their bullish momentum. However, Director of Macro for investment firm Fidelity Jurrien Timmer believes it might be too soon to call a victory. 

The experts claim many other factors to consider before calling the bottom. In equities, a sector that Bitcoin is following closely, the next earnings seasons will be crucial. 

Companies must show growth early next year, or the stock market will risk another blow. So far, Timmer believes the chances of significant growth are “unlikely” as measured by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). 

This index measures the state of the manufacturing and service sectors. The metric offers a view of the current and future health of businesses. The chart below shows that the metric has room to keep crashing. 

 Based on the PMI cycle, the market might see an effective relief in 2024, which has a confluence with the Bitcoin Halving. This event is a major bullish catalyzer for Bitcoin. Timmer said:

(…) It seems premature to expect a bottom for earnings anytime soon. If earnings growth won’t bottom for another year or longer, then an October price bottom seems rather ambitious.

However, Timmer also clarified that there is a precedent in which stocks rallied before a good earnings season. The market experience these rallies in the 1970s and 1990s, but as mentioned, this possibility is unlikely in the current environment. 

Of course, in our current cycle, earnings growth peaked coincident with price, so the market might follow a more conventional playbook rather than repeat that hopeful outlier from the early 1970s. /END

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 1, 2022