Bitcoin broke past $72,000 on October 29, 2024, reaching its peak price since June, according to the Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index. The jump matched a record surge in Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest (OI) measured in U.S. dollars, reflecting intense interest from traders and investors. This shift suggests a strong upward path for the leading cryptocurrency.

Source: Brave New Coin’s Bitcoin Liquid Index

On Tuesday, BTC futures saw a significant single-day rise in OI since June 3, with a boost of over 20,000 BTC, or roughly $2.5 billion at current prices. Total OI approached 600,000 BTC, valued at around $42.6 billion. Open interest tracks outstanding derivative contracts like futures or options that remain unsettled. When OI rises with prices, it signals fresh capital entering the market, reinforcing a bullish outlook.

Source: Glassnode

Yet, high OI can drive up volatility, especially as contracts near expiration. Traders may scramble to adjust, roll over, or close positions, triggering price swings. Research from Kaiko indicates that while the futures market attracts strong interest, funding rates for these positions remain below March highs, suggesting demand may still be cautious despite increasing OI.

Bitcoin Open Interest Hits $42.6B Mark

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets and periodic payments made to balance contract prices with asset spot prices recently shifted significantly. Coinglass data shows a surge in funding rates to 15%, marking one of the highest points in recent months. Rising rates indicate a strong preference for bullish long trades, reinforcing a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Singapore-based QCP Capital shares a bullish view on Bitcoin, projecting continued price increases. In a recent Telegram broadcast, QCP Capital noted that optimism around a potential Trump win could drive both stocks and Bitcoin upward, positioning BTC well for mid-term growth. This view highlights the strong confidence institutional investors hold in Bitcoin’s future.

Contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) recorded a 9% spike in open interest within 24 hours, reaching 171,700 BTC, with a value surpassing $12.22 billion. This rise reinforces CME’s leading position in future open interest, contributing 30% of the total market. Despite occasional shifts, CME firmly maintains its top role in Bitcoin futures trading.

Source: Glassnode

Surge in ETF Inflows Boosts Bitcoin Momentum

Mid-October saw Bitcoin trading around $67,000, with CME’s open interest hitting all-time highs in both notional open interest ($12.4 billion) and Bitcoin-denominated futures contracts (179,930 BTC), according to Glassnode data. This period also marked a shift in the dynamics of Bitcoin trading, driven by strong inflows from U.S.-listed spot ETFs.

Since October 16, Bitcoin-denominated futures contracts on CME have decreased by over 6%, contrasting sharply with ETF inflows, which have accumulated a net inflow of $2.7 billion. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led this charge, with $2.2 billion in net inflows and a new record of holding over 400,000 Bitcoin in the ETF. This shift indicates a move from institutional basis trades at the start of the year to more bullish, long-directional plays, reflecting growing confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.

Earlier in the year, basis trading or cash and carry arbitrage was prevalent. This strategy involved taking a long position on the ETF and a short position on CME futures to exploit price differences between the spot and futures markets. Since March, this strategy kept Bitcoin trading in a sideways range, as not all ETF inflows were directionally long, resulting in a net neutral strategy. 

Divergence Between CME Open Interest and ETF Inflows

Analysts report a gap between rising ETF inflows and CME open interest growth. Checkmate, an analyst firm, highlights steady ETF inflows, contrasting with modest increases in CME open interest. Checkmate stated that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) outflows remain minimal, suggesting genuine ETF inflows without significant cash-and-carry trades.

Aligning with this trend, Emory University’s endowment recently invested in the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), reflecting a strategic long position similar to the Wisconsin Pension Fund’s approach. Although Emory’s $15 million investment may appear small for an institutional player, it marks a significant shift towards direct bullish exposure in Bitcoin.

Not all experts share this optimism. Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s research head, offers a different perspective, noting rising short positions and increasing CME open interest. He associates this with growing cash-and-carry trades, pointing to a notable uptick in net non-commercial positions on CME since early September. However, the latest open interest data remains limited to weekly CFTC updates through October 22, leaving recent changes unclear.