As Bitcoin navigates a rapidly changing market landscape, many investors are asking, will history repeat itself?

In 2018, Bitcoin lost 72% of its value under Trump’s first term, largely due to economic uncertainty and tightening regulations. Now, with Trump back in office and new tariffs shaking global markets, could Bitcoin face a similar fate?

However, one of the key differences in 2025 is the emergence of Bitcoin ETFs. Institutional demand has soared, with the spot ETFs from BlackRock and others attracting huge inflows.

Today the Trump Media Group announced the imminent launch of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs. Could a new wave of institutional capital counteract the economic pressures of renewed trade wars?

Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social, has filed trademark applications for a series of financial products under the “Truth.Fi” brand. These include the Bitcoin Plus ETFs and a Made in America ETF. It’s thought that this could include American-based digital assets such as Ripple’s XRP, Solana, and the stablecoin USDC.

Trump’s Truth.Fi ETFs Source: X

Tariffs Return, Markets React

The return of trade tensions between the U.S. and China has sent shockwaves through financial markets. Trump’s newly imposed 10% tariff on Chinese imports has strengthened the U.S. dollar, pushing the dollar index above 109. In response, traditional safe-haven assets like gold have surged to record highs, hitting $2,880 per ounce.

Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX). Source: Brave New Coin

Bitcoin, often compared to gold as a digital store of value, is struggling to maintain its safe-haven status. The cryptocurrency has lost over 6% of its market share in recent days, echoing early warning signs of its 2018 decline. Yet, Bitcoin has shown resilience, consistently holding above the $98,000 mark—an important support level. If Bitcoin continues to reclaim this position, analysts predict a potential rally in the near future.

Exchange Balances Signal Accumulation

One factor bolstering Bitcoin’s bullish case is the declining supply of BTC on exchanges. Over the last six months, exchange balances have dropped 13%, reaching a six-year low. This trend suggests that investors are moving their holdings into self-custody, reducing the likelihood of mass sell-offs.

Net transfer of Bitcoin on exchanges. Source: Glassnode

Additionally, a massive withdrawal of 17,000 BTC on February 5, including 15,000 BTC from Coinbase alone, indicates growing confidence among large-scale investors. Such accumulation trends often signal anticipation of higher prices in the near term.

Bitcoin ETFs: A Game-Changer?

The biggest development in 2025 is the launch of multiple Bitcoin ETFs by Trump Media Group. On February 6, the announcement sent Bitcoin’s price soaring from $95,000 to $98,500 in just under an hour. Trading volumes exploded, with Coinbase reporting a 150% increase, reaching $1.2 billion in 24-hour volume.

Since the introduction of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, institutional demand has surged, with total inflows exceeding $40 billion. In just the past two weeks, these ETFs have attracted an additional $2.5 billion, signaling strong investor confidence.

The ETF-driven momentum also boosted other cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana seeing 5-8% price jumps. On-chain data further confirmed growing market participation, as active Bitcoin addresses spiked following the ETF launch.

Bitcoin’s 2025 Price Outlook

Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory will largely depend on key economic indicators. The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in January is particularly critical—rising inflation could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may put pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Renowned analyst Bob Loukas remains bullish. He predicts that once Bitcoin surpasses $106,000, it will enter a new bullish cycle. Loukas expects Bitcoin to bottom out by late February, setting the stage for a significant uptrend.

Bitcoin to bottom out by late February. Source: Bob Loukas on X

Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to break past the $110,000 resistance level despite multiple attempts. According to Bravenewcoin data, Bitcoin is trading at $98,262, down over 9% from its recent peak. Loukas describes this phase as an “eat-each-other” cycle, where new investor influx is limited. He suggests that Bitcoin may dominate the upcoming cycle, leaving some altcoins behind.

Despite recent trade-related market turbulence, Bitcoin’s dominance has surged, reinforcing its position as a preferred asset during economic uncertainty. As global trade disputes continue to unfold, institutional investors may increasingly view Bitcoin as a hedge against financial instability.

Will 2025 Be Different?

While parallels to 2018 exist, Bitcoin’s current market environment is significantly different. Bitcoin may face significant downside volatility as 49,700 BTC ($5 billion worth), dormant for six to twelve months, has suddenly moved, according to CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin: $5 Billion in Dormant Bitcoin moves according to CryptoQuant.

Analyst “XBTManager” warns that this could signal a potential sell-off, increasing panic among retail investors and adding to selling pressure. However, they also noted that such movements sometimes indicate market manipulation, as prices often rebound quickly.

This warning comes amid a 7% drop in Bitcoin’s price earlier this week, falling from nearly $98,000 to just above $91,000. Several altcoins saw losses of up to 20%, and over $2 billion in leveraged trading positions were liquidated within 24 hours. The decline was fueled by concerns over Trump’s new tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, though market fears eased slightly after the administration delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Analysts stress that the Bitcoin price must hold the $90,000-$91,000 range to avoid a potential drop to $70,000. Currently, Bitcoin trades at around $98,000, up 0.61% in the past 24 hours. While the market shows similarities to 2018’s downturn, growing institutional demand from ETFs and declining exchange balances suggest Bitcoin may be more resilient this time. However, with billions in BTC moving and ongoing trade tensions, Bitcoin still faces a critical test.