In a report released on November 21, analysts Nathan Frankovitz and Matthew Sigel emphasized that the crypto bull market is in its early stages, fueled by improving U.S. regulations and growing institutional interest.

VanEck attributes the forecast to a convergence of favorable factors, including pro-crypto developments within the U.S. government and increased institutional demand. Sigel highlighted this during a CNBC interview, stating, “This is just the beginning of a significant rally.” He pointed to the presence of crypto-friendly officials in key government positions, signaling a policy shift towards digital assets.

The potential resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, known for his stringent regulatory stance, could further ease pressures on the cryptocurrency market. Analysts believe this would end the “regulation by enforcement” era, creating a more supportive landscape for Bitcoin and other blockchain projects.

Bitcoin’s price has been steadily climbing, hitting $99,800 recently—just shy of the psychological $100,000 barrier. This momentum is partly attributed to optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s reelection, which has historically correlated with bullish sentiment in the crypto market. 

The VanEck report highlights downloads of the Coinbase App as an indicator of increased retail interest in crypto. “Bitcoin’s election-night breakout reignited retail interest, with Coinbase’s App Store rank jumping from #412 to #9 between November 5th and 14th. This surge in engagement helped drive prices higher.” Source: VanEck

Funding Rates Signal Both Momentum and Caution

VanEck’s report highlighted a significant market shift: perpetual futures contracts for Bitcoin showed funding rates exceeding 10% as of November 11. Historically, such elevated funding rates have been linked to strong short-term gains, typically over 30 to 90 days.

However, the firm cautioned that prolonged high funding rates could signal market overheating. Their analysis showed that investments made during these periods often underperform over longer time frames, such as one to two years.

VanEck’s $180,000 target reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience and its ability to overcome historical barriers. “Bitcoin is now in blue-sky territory, where no technical resistance exists,” Sigel explained, adding that the asset’s trajectory resembles past post-election surges.

During the 2020 cycle, Bitcoin doubled in value between November and early 2021, driven by similar institutional inflows and regulatory optimism. This cycle shows comparable indicators, including rising interest from financial advisors and robust trading activity in derivatives markets.

Expert Opinions: A Divided Outlook

While VanEck maintains its ambitious price target, market analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s immediate future. Some predict BTC could comfortably surpass $100,000 by year-end, while others warn of potential corrections.

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, also offered a bullish perspective, citing Bitcoin ETFs and the possibility of Bitcoin being adopted as a U.S. reserve asset as key drivers. He projected a price range of $82,000 to $150,000 over the next six months.

VanEck’s audacious prediction demonstrates its belief in Bitcoin as a major digital asset in a fast-changing financial landscape. While short-term volatility may persist, the firm’s long-term forecast predicts a record-breaking cycle fueled by institutional inflows, favorable regulations, and sustained market enthusiasm.