The XRP token has experienced a significant decline this month, shedding nearly 15% of its value. The primary catalyst for this drop is the SEC’s recent appeal in the ongoing Ripple lawsuit, a move that has injected uncertainty into the market.

Source: BNC XRP Liquid Index

Despite the downturn, market analysts suggest this may present a buying opportunity rather than a cause for panic. Historical price patterns and recent whale activity hint at a potential XRP price surge in the future. However, the SEC’s appeal poses a significant hurdle to bullish scenarios, particularly if the court deems secondary XRP sales to retail investors unlawful in the US.

Ripple is reportedly considering a cross-appeal, with Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty stating that the SEC’s case against the company has been “wrongheaded from the beginning.” Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse echoed this sentiment, questioning the SEC’s continued pursuit of the case, which he believes has damaged the agency’s credibility and failed to protect investors.

Long-Term Price Predictions

Technical analysis of XRP’s monthly chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern forming, similar to structures that have preceded major price movements in the past. If XRP follows historical trends, a breakout from this triangle could lead to substantial gains.

Analysts suggest a potential upside target of $23.40, representing an astounding 4,200% increase. This breakout could occur around June 2025 if the price surpasses the upper trendline of the triangle. However, if the bearish pressure continues, XRP could fall below the lower trendline and its 50-month EMA, currently coinciding around $0.52, potentially leading to further declines.

Recent Developments and Market Sentiment

Adding to the uncertainty, a massive movement of nearly 250 million XRP tokens off exchanges by anonymous whales has raised eyebrows. This comes amidst growing skepticism from XRP critics, including Bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser, who dismisses the possibility of an XRP rally. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has even predicted XRP’s price collapsing to zero against Bitcoin based on a long-term head-and-shoulders pattern.

Source: X

Despite the negative sentiment, there are glimmers of hope. Bitwise, a leading cryptocurrency index fund manager, recently filed for an XRP ETF, becoming the first firm to do so. However, this news failed to trigger a price rally, likely overshadowed by the SEC’s appeal.

Currently, XRP is trading around $0.53, below the crucial 200-day EMA and nearing a critical support level. If this support breaks, the token could fall to the $0.48-$0.49 range, signaling further downside risk.

The coming months will be crucial for XRP as the market awaits the outcome of the SEC’s appeal and observes whether the token can overcome the current negative sentiment and capitalize on its long-term breakout potential.