With about 16% of its value lost in October 2024 alone, XRP, the native coin of Ripple, has been under heavy assault this month. The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) fresh appeal in its continuous action against Ripple is driving the price drop. Investors are left wondering about XRP’s future as the legal question of whether it qualifies as a security looms over the token like a dark cloud.

Hope is mixed with skepticism, as some analysts are nearly optimistic about recovery, considering the dire forecast. Indeed, there have been whale activities identified through recent data from the Whale Alert platform, monitoring large cryptos transfers.

30,380,000 #XRP (15,993,939 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bitsohttps://t.co/NWSMKsIZJy

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) October 3, 2024

Over the past 24 hours, 153 million XRP tokens were transferred and some of them, undoubtedly, to the exchanges. This has elicited some interest on the side of traders about future prospects for XRP, though the token’s future leans considerably on the outcome in court with the SEC.

19,220,000 #XRP (10,122,908 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bitstamphttps://t.co/GNObmOWzeZ

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) October 3, 2024

Whales Are Migrating XRP

Whale Alert reports that a whale wallet transferred over 30 million XRP tokens equivalent to almost $16 million into the Bitso exchange. Such activity on part of whales is usually deemed to be a precursor where traders are either bracing for more losses or are seeking profits. Everyone keeps guessing whether this spate of activity from whales bodes well for another leg down of XRP ahead of the SEC appeal.

104,384,848 #XRP (54,662,653 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to unknown new wallethttps://t.co/ggwKSmRD9z

— Whale Alert (@whale_alert) October 3, 2024

In spite of these substantial token transfers, there are those who anticipate that XRP may experience a rebound. Jack The Rippler, a renowned crypto analyst, identified a historical descending triangle pattern on the one-month chart of XRP. This pattern implies that the token may be consolidating prior to a potential breakout. In 2016 and 2020, comparable patterns resulted in precipitous rallies following the breach of resistance levels, providing optimism to those anticipating an additional increase in the price of XRP.

Is There A Possibility Of A Breakout?

XRP is currently at a juncture from a technical standpoint. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 39, a value that suggests bearish momentum. Typically, an RSI below 50 indicates that the asset is under pressure, and if it falls below 30, it may enter oversold territory.

However, the analysis from Jack The Rippler reveals that XRP might break out of its current trend since this is the case after a similar consolidation in the past. Analysts expect that this token might continue its pursuit of the next resistance level if such is the case.

Meanwhile, the SEC lawsuit is the elephant in the room, though, and cannot be ignored either. The result of this court struggle will significantly affect XRP’s next action. Should the SEC be successful in showing that Ripple’s secondary XRP sales broke US securities rules, the token may suffer more losses; some analysts predict a sharp decrease from its present price to $0.11.

Featured image from CPO Magazine, chart from TradingView