3 reasons XRP might drop to $1.60 in March

The XRP (XRP) daily chart registered its lowest candle close in 99 days on March 10. The altcoin dropped below the $2 support level but registered a short-term recovery of 12% on March 11.

XRP 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

On the high time frame (HTF) charts, XRP must hold above its psychological level at $2, but other metrics suggest that a deeper drawdown is possible.

XRP price is currently down 37.1% from its all-time high of $3.40. When prices dipped by a similar percentage on Feb. 3, spot market bids quickly absorbed the selling pressure, pushing XRP above $2.50.

XRP’s spot and perpetual aggregated data. Source: aggr.trade

However, XRP‘s spot and perpetual markets were relatively bearish over the past week. Data from aggr.trade indicates that XRP’s spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) dropped by 50% in March.

A negative CVD means that there is more selling volume than buying. The current CVD value is -$408 million, which signals waning demand, with sellers taking control.

Likewise, futures traders are also turning bearish, with perpetual CVD dropping to -1.18 billion on March 11. XRP’s open interest-weighted funding rate has also turned significantly negative, which indicates more short positions were added over the past few days.

XRP funding rate chart. Source: CoinGlass

XRP’s volume bubble map showed a surge in activity toward the end of February. Ki-Young Ju, CryptoQuant founder, observed that this uptick aligned with an ongoing distribution phase for XRP.

Distribution refers to a period in the market cycle when large investors slowly offload their positions to secure gains, usually happening close to the peak of an upward trend.

Related: Why is the XRP price down today?

Current data reveals that the distribution phase has intensified over the past seven days. Specifically, whale outflows, measured as a 30-day moving average, have steadily risen.

This increase suggests that large holders continued to offload their XRP positions, further driving the distribution trend.

XRP total whale flows. Source: CryptoQuant

Between March 4 and March 10, these large XRP holders offloaded roughly $838 million in positions. This significant sell-off reflects the ongoing bearish trend for XRP.

On March 11, XRP’s 1-day chart closed below $2.05, which is the critical neckline of the daily head-and-shoulders pattern. This pattern has potentially strong bearish consequences when observed on a high time frame (HTF) chart.

XRP 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Lower prices are likely if XRP fails to reclaim $2.05 as support, as illustrated in the chart above.

The immediate target zone for the XRP price remains between 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement lines. Also known as the “golden zone,” the retest range lies between $1.90 and $1.60. The likelihood of retesting the 0.618 Fibonacci or $1.60 is high in the current bearish environment.

Failure to hold this range could lead to a retest of the long-term demand zone between $1.58 and $1.27.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.