Altcoin Market Cap Surges Past 200-Day EMA: Is Altseason Finally Here?

Several indicators point to renewed strength in altcoins, suggesting a potential altcoin season on the horizon. However, for confirmation, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance needs to drop further.

Crypto analysts are closely monitoring various indicators that track altcoin behavior, with one critical metric being the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA).

According to the following chart, the OTHERS index – an index that tracks the market cap of cryptocurrencies excluding the top 10 digital assets by market capitalization – has surged past both the 100-day EMA and the 200-day EMA.

For the uninitiated, the 200-day EMA is a commonly used technical indicator that shows the average price of an asset over the past 200 days, with more weightage given to recent prices. It’s used to identify long-term trends – when the price is above the 200-day EMA, it suggests the asset may be in an upward trend, while being below it signals a potential downtrend. 

At present, the OTHERS index sits at $227.5 billion, while the 200-day EMA and the 100-day EMA are at $221.8 billion and $212.9 billion, respectively. According to crypto analyst Caleb Franzen, the last time this occurred was in July 2023. At the time, altcoins established firm support at these EMAs to achieve higher-highs. 

Another cryptocurrency analyst, Ali Martinez, alluded to the altcoin market cap – excluding BTC and Ethereum (ETH) – breaking out of what appears to be a long downward trend. Although Martinez is not fully convinced of a full-blown altcoin season yet, he dubs the breakout as a “good start.”

While the altcoin market cap breaking out of a sustained downtrend raises hope for an imminent altseason, BTC dominance (BTC.D) must drop significantly from its current levels. 

Currently, Bitcoin dominance sits at 57.5%. From the chart below, it is evident that BTC.D has been on a sustained upward trajectory since at least November 2022. According to crypto analyst Yoddha, BTC.D looks poised to crash into the mid-40s, potentially paving the way for a full-blown altseason.

Negentropic, co-founder at on-chain data platform Glassnode, remarked that the market seems to be on the verge of an altcoin season. Referring to the Bitcoin-Altcoin Cycle chart from Swissblock, Negentropic notes that once BTC breaks its all-time high (ATH) and enters price discovery mode, altcoin should follow suit. 

The Bitcoin-Altcoin Cycle chart displays the inverse relationship between BTC and altcoin price movements throughout the year. Any reading above 50 indicates the market has entered an altcoin-dominated phase, whereas a reading below 50 signals a BTC-led market.

Despite these promising indicators, it’s important for the leading altcoin, ETH, to rebound against BTC before capital flows into mid-cap and small-cap altcoins. As previously reported, the ETH/BTC trading pair is currently at its lowest since April 2021. At press time, BTC trades at $64,481, up 1.5% in the past 24 hours.