Bitcoin at $70K, Ethereum at $4K: Arthur Hayes Predicts When Altcoin Season Will Begin

As historically proven, the start of an altcoin season, or ‘altseason,’ a period marked by the strong performance of alternative cryptocurrencies relative to Bitcoin, often begins following a significant increase in BTC’s price.

This phenomenon has been elaborated recently by Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom Fund, who has now shared the specific time when the alt season for this cycle could begin.

In Hayes’ latest substack blog post “Water, Water, Every Where,” the BitMEX co-founder suggests that certain key price marks for Bitcoin and Ethereum hold the key to altcoins commencing their next major rally.

Hayes emphasizes that for altcoins to embark on a bullish trend, Bitcoin and Ethereum must surpass significant psychological barriers. According to the BitMEX co-founder, Bitcoin must break above $70,000, and Ethereum must exceed $4,000 to set the stage for a broader altcoin rally.

These levels are seen as crucial for restoring investor confidence and enabling a flow of capital into smaller-cap coins. Hayes particularly noted:

Alt szn will return only after Bitcoin and Ether decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively. Solana will also climb over $250, but the crypto market-wide wealth effect of a Solana pump is nowhere near as potent as with Bitcoin and Ether, given the relative market caps. The combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree.

In addition to his alt season start-off forecast, the BitMEX co-founder disclosed some potential catalysts that could play a major role in these upcoming market rallies. Hayes connected these imminent market movements to macroeconomic factors, specifically the issuance of US Treasury bills (T-bills).

He argues that these could introduce new liquidity into the crypto markets, propelling Bitcoin towards the $100,000 mark within this cycle.

This anticipated flow of funds is expected to benefit Bitcoin and have a significant positive impact on Ethereum and, by extension, the broader altcoin market.

Hayes also commented on the upcoming US election and the likely impact on the crypto market. Referring to it as “a coin toss,” the BitMEX co-founder said that with the election in early November and Yellen being at “peak manipulation in October, there will be no better time for liquidity this year.”

He added:

Therefore, I shall sell into strength. I will not liquidate my entire crypto portfolio but take profits in my more speculative momentum trades.

At the end of the note, the BitMEX co-founder touched on the US debts and reiterated his $1 million prediction on Bitcoin, noting:

Once the US debt ceiling charade is over, liquidity will gush from the Treasury and possibly the Fed to get markets back on track. Then, the bull market will begin for realz. $1 million Bitcoin is still my base case.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView