Bitcoin Dominance Holds Altcoin Season At Bay, Analyst Says No Upside Until This Happens

The Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) continues to exert pressure on the broader crypto market, casting a shadow on the prospects of an incoming altcoin season. Despite recent volatility and decline in the market, a crypto analyst observes that Bitcoin Dominance remains firmly elevated, signaling that capital is still concentrated in the leading cryptocurrency. This trend, they argue, is preventing any meaningful breakout for altcoins and could persist unless a decisive shift in market structure occurs. 

The Bitcoin Dominance in the cryptocurrency market is tightening its grip, crushing hopes of an imminent altcoin season. According to a recent technical analysis posted on X (formerly Twitter) by market expert Tony Severino, Bitcoin’s market cap dominance has reached 65.72% with both monthly and Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings pushing above the critical 70 level. 

At the time of the analysis, the RSI on the monthly timeline stood at 73.19, while the weekly registered at 70.58—both firmly in overbought territory. These levels typically reflect strong momentum and extended bullish conditions, indicating that Bitcoin’s command over the crypto market is still strong and growing. 

Severino shared a dual chart view of Bitcoin Dominance and RSI across the weekly and monthly time frames, highlighting candlestick structures that support Bitcoin’s ongoing upward momentum. BTC.D has been climbing since late 2023. The RSI values also remain comfortably above their respective Moving Average (MA) baselines of 67.31 and 65.42, indicating sustained strength rather than signs of immediate exhaustion. 

As long as Bitcoin Dominance holds these elevated RSI levels across their major time frames, Severino suggests that altcoins will likely continue to underperform, further delaying the long-awaited altcoin season. The analyst emphasizes that meaningful upside for altcoins will not begin until BTC.D starts to wane and RSI readings fall below 70—effectively signaling a shift in sentiment and market strength that could allow capital to rotate to alternative cryptocurrencies. 

Until such a pullback occurs, the analyst argues that the weekly and monthly BTC.D and RSI charts strongly indicate that any expectations of an altcoin season this cycle remain premature. 

In another X post, Severino announced that the Bitcoin Dominance has potentially formed a Dragonfly Doji on the weekly chart. With four days left in the weekly session, the analyst notes that the distinct candle pattern is still developing but presently resembles the classic Dragonfly Doji, characterized by a long lower wick and a close near the opening price. 

Typically, this chart pattern is viewed as a bullish reversal signal when it appears at the bottom of a downtrend, indicating possible upside momentum. However, in this case, it has emerged during a broader uptrend in BTC.D, creating a more complicated technical picture.

Severino believes that the Dragonfly Doji could either represent a continuation of the current momentum or a temporary pause in market direction. If the candle evolves into a larger bullish body and closes above the 65.65% level, it may confirm further strengthening of Bitcoin’s growing market dominance relative to altcoins.