Bitcoin, XRP Rallies Won’t Hold Until Oil Falls Toward $80, Expert Warns

Brent crude slid nearly 12% on Monday to trade around $94, but market expert Sam Daodu warns that oil prices will need to fall further — toward the $85–$80 range — before potential rallies in Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP prices can be sustainable. 

According to Daodu, energy prices remain the key link between the ongoing Middle East conflict and crypto market direction, and until they ease, inflation fears and interest-rate concerns will continue to cap risk assets.

Bitcoin currently sits just above the psychologically important $70,000 level, while XRP is consolidating near $1.44. Both tokens have retraced modestly from last week’s highs, with Bitcoin down roughly 4% and XRP off about 5% on the weekly chart after encountering resistance higher up.

Those pullbacks, Daodu says, are tied to the same macro forces that have pushed oil above $100 on repeated escalation headlines since the Strait of Hormuz closures began in late February. Daodu emphasizes that high oil prices sustain inflationary pressure and, crucially, keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy. 

The Fed’s message on March 19 has pushed out expectations for easier monetary policy. When rate-cut prospects fade, capital rotates away from risk-on assets, and crypto, which still behaves like a high-risk asset, tends to suffer.

The expert also highlighted structural reasons crypto markets have appeared particularly sensitive to geopolitical shocks. Because digital-asset markets are open around the clock, they absorb the initial wave of risk sentiment instantly, often before traditional markets open. 

That 24/7 liquidity profile can lead to sharper moves in Bitcoin and XRP price following weekend or overnight headlines, as selling is concentrated into thinner markets, as Daodu noted in his report.

Despite these headwinds, Daodu notes there are constructive technical patterns beneath the surface. Bitcoin has formed higher lows on successive sell-offs since late February, suggesting buyers step in during each dip. 

XRP, on the other hand, has maintained a roughly $1.35–$1.45 holding zone through recent escalations, reflecting resilience even as rallies fail to hold.

Crucially, Daodu argues that oil is the variable most likely to break the current pattern of short-lived crypto rallies. He noted that if Brent retreats toward $80–$85 on signs of a ceasefire or diplomatic progress, inflation pressures should ease and the Fed could regain room to consider rate cuts. 

Renewed expectations for easier policy would likely return risk capital to crypto markets and give Bitcoin and XRP the momentum they need to sustain gains. 

Conversely, if energy prices remain north of $100, every positive catalyst will be counterbalanced by the same inflation-and-rates dynamic that has dominated price action since February.

Daodu also reminded that several bullish fundamentals that existed before the conflict have not disappeared: the SEC’s movement toward treating Bitcoin as a commodity, inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and forward progress on the CLARITY Act. 

Those catalysts are still in place but, in his view, are on hold until broader macro conditions — led by a decline in oil — allow risk assets to reassert themselves.

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com