Cardano Down 90% Since September 2021, Did Smart Contracts ‘Kill’ ADA?

At the peak of the 2020 to 2021 bull run, ADA, the native token of Cardano, rose to $3 in August. Interestingly, developers activated smart contracts around the top of this cycle after completing the Alonzo hard fork, ushering in the Goguen phase.

However, as Atomic Wallet analysts note, ADA has been on a downtrend since then, crumbling by over 90% over the years at the time of writing. ADA is changing hands at $0.32 when writing, finding immediate support at around $0.30, a psychological number.

Though traders are optimistic about what lies ahead, the turn of events over the last three years could suggest that the activation of smart contracts on Cardano did “kill” the coin’s valuation. The plummeting prices, made worse by the 2022 crypto winter, mean those who bought in August 2021 are holding mud.

Whether ADA will recover in the coming weeks and rewind losses of 2022 remains to be seen. What’s clear is that the activation of the Alonzo hard fork and the start of the Goguen era was a key milestone for Cardano. The transition was crucial considering that before September 2021, developers couldn’t deploy dApps and take on Ethereum and competing properties supporting smart contracts.

For years, since the genesis block, Cardano developers have been accused of delaying the process while using billions for development. After Alonzo, users can, even now, create complex smart contracts using Plutus scripts and run dApps. Like other blockchains, all fees are payable in ADA, the native token.

Over the years, Cardano has grown its ecosystem, looking at the total value locked (TVL). According to DeFiLlama, DeFi protocols on Cardano, active after Alonzo, now manage over $177 million in assets.

Though relatively low compared to those in Ethereum and the BNB Chain, developers took advantage of smart contracts and built solutions on the network.

The current disconnect between ADA valuation and the expectation of coin holders post-Goguen is a concern. It is so especially as Cardano completes the Basho stage, moving to Voltaire, the final phase of the platform’s development.

Voltaire focuses on making Cardano governance decentralized. Here, ADA will have more utility, allowing holders to vote on proposals and directly helping improve the network. Additionally, there will be a treasury for funding projects deploying on Cardano. So far, the Chang hard fork is in progress, with roughly 33% of all stake pool operators (SPOs) ready.

Meanwhile, ADA remains under immense selling pressure and could plunge to 2023 lows of around $0.22 if buyers don’t step in. If prices rise above $0.50, bulls will likely push ADA toward March 2024 highs.