Cardano Retests Key Support As SEC Delays ETF Decision – Is An October Rally Brewing?

As the decision on Grayscale’s spot Cardano (ADA) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has been delayed, the altcoin is retesting a key area. Some analysts have suggested that a massive rally is brewing after the price bounced from the range lows.

On Tuesday, Cardano started to recover from its start-of-week correction after bouncing from a crucial area. The cryptocurrency has been trading within the $0.84-$0.96 price range since its breakout in early August, reaching a five-month high of $1.02 on August 14.

During the recent market pullbacks, ADA has retested the $0.85 area as support multiple times and has been attempting to reclaim the $0.90 resistance, momentarily holding this level over the weekend.

However, Monday’s correction, which saw Bitcoin drop to its lowest level in over a month, sent Cardano back to the range lows, briefly losing the $0.84 support before starting to recover.

Amid the retracement, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) delayed the deadline for Grayscale’s spot Cardano Exchange-Traded Fund for two months.

“The Commission is extending the time period for approving or disapproving the proposed rule change for an additional 60 days. The Commission finds it appropriate to designate a longer period within which to issue an order approving or disapproving the proposed rule change so that it has sufficient time to consider the proposed rule change and the issues raised therein,” the regulatory agency explained in the Monday filing.

Accordingly, the SEC has postponed the final decision deadline to October 26, 2025. This follows the Commission’s recent two-month delays of many crypto-based ETFs.

Earlier this month, the regulatory agency announced it had pushed back the decision deadline for multiple spot Solana ETFs, including Grayscale’s, to October 16. Similarly, it extended the review deadline of several spot XRP and PENGU ETFs for late October.

Analyst Crypto Bullet highlighted that Cardano appears to be repeating its playbook from the last cycle. After the 2017-2018 run, ADA accumulated in a multi-year range, forming a double bottom pattern between 2019 and 2020.

Following the late 2020 breakout, the cryptocurrency reclaimed the range’s upper boundary before retesting this level as support and starting its massive run toward ADA’s $3.09 all-time high (ATH) in the following months.

According to the analyst, Cardano’s performance over this cycle has followed a similar path, with the breakout and retest from the multi-year accumulation occurring between late 2023 and early 2024.

During the Q4 2024 rally, the altcoin bounced from the range’s upper boundary, and it’s currently in the re-accumulation period that would precede a massive pump in the coming months, if history repeats.

To Crypto Bullet, “one last leg is coming,” with a potential final target between the $1.70-$2.10 area, according to the analyst.

Meanwhile, market watcher Sebastian highlighted that ADA’s current performance will “mostly depend on what Bitcoin does,” suggesting that the flagship crypto will likely see a bigger retracement soon.

He pointed out that the altcoin has been trading within a bullish flag since the early August breakout, with the upper boundary sitting around the $0.90 area.

If it doesn’t reclaim this level, the cryptocurrency would risk a pullback to the lower trendline around $0.80. However, if Cardano breaks out of the bullish formation, it could rally to the $1.20 target.

As of this writing, ADA is trading at $0.87, a 4% increase in the daily timeframe.