Dogecoin About To Explode? ‘Don’t Send It Too Hard,’ Analyst Warns

The news that Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump may have marked the bottom for the Dogecoin price. Via X, independent chartist Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) uploaded a weekly DOGE/USDT study that he believes is tracing an unusually clean, nested 1-2, 1-2 “spring-loaded” Elliott set-up – the kind of formation that often precedes an outsized third-wave rally. “DOGE … Market makers, please, don’t send it too hard,” the analyst joked on 23 June, imploring liquidity desks to let the structure mature before unleashing volatility.

In Maelius’ count, the second of the two minor wave-twos ended last week when price tagged $0.142 and immediately snapped higher. That inflection, visible on his chart as the tip of a long lower wick, occurred exactly where the 200-week exponential moving average ($0.142) intersects a rising support trend-line that has tracked Dogecoin since late-2023 – a textbook area for long-term money to defend. The bounce printed on Sunday’s weekly close, giving technicians a hard reference point for risk.

If the wave map is correct, the composite third wave that now follows could push into the $1.10–$1.30 corridor, Maelius annotates. A fourth-wave pause somewhere near $0.60 would then reset oscillators before a terminal fifth wave above $1.60 completes the cycle. While the analyst stops short of publishing time targets, the price levels are etched in full on the chart, making the roadmap unambiguous.

Underlying demand is also drawn into the picture. A broad green rectangle labelled “DEMAND” spans roughly $0.12–$0.17. Last week’s wick once again penetrated that zone before reversing, adding statistical weight to its importance.

At the bottom of Maelius’ chart lies the WaveTrend Oscillator (WTO), comprising a fast line (WT1), a slow line (WT2) and a histogram that plots their spread. The analyst shades the band between about –60 and –30 in green to denote the oversold floor. Both momentum lines double-bottomed in that zone in autumn 2024 and April this year, immediately before price rocketed higher.

As of Sunday’s close WT1 prints –18.49 and WT2 –33.21, with the histogram at –22.80. In other words, momentum is cooling but could be reversing as it is touching Maelius’ bottom zone as in previous instances.

Sceptics note that a nested 1-2 count can fail if price undercuts the second wave-two, and that liquidity-driven memecoins are intrinsically prone to whipsaw. Even Maelius tempered his enthusiasm in a follow-up exchange when a follower warned of a “choppy summer,” replying: “We are almost in July bro, one or two months of chop not changing anything if [it] happens.”

For now the battleground is clear: as long as Dogecoin holds above the converging 200-week EMA–trend-line nexus and the upper rim of the demand zone, the wave thesis remains intact and the next directional verdict will belong to the market rather than the meme.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.1634, up 17% since the bottom on Sunday.