Dogecoin Bear Market Almost Over? Crypto Analyst Weighs In

Dogecoin’s drawdown may be closer to its late-stage “capitulation” phase than a clean bottom, according to crypto YouTuber VisionPulsed, who argued in a Feb. 8 video that lingering bullishness across Crypto Twitter and YouTube is itself a signal the market likely hasn’t inflicted enough pain yet.

In his latest Dogecoin-focused update, VisionPulsed framed the setup less as a clean technical inflection and more as a familiar cycle pattern: retail optimism fades slowly, the final washout arrives when even perennial bulls lose their “fight,” and only then does a durable low tend to form.

“More and more people are starting to get bearish and once we finally break this low I think that’s going to be when everyone says it’s bearish but it’s going to be too late because the bottom is probably going to be in soon,” he said. “So, the fact that there’s still people coming on YouTube saying that it’s still bullish, it’s that we haven’t gone down low enough.”

VisionPulsed repeatedly returned to what he called the market’s ability to “run the same play twice in a row,” arguing that the same bearish indicators can persist because each cycle brings a fresh cohort that resists the idea the move is over. He also suggested the incentive structure of crypto content can reinforce that dynamic, with creators leaning bullish because it sustains engagement, even as broader conditions deteriorate.

“The reason I bring all this shenanigans in is because the fact that there’s still people that are still bullish shows why the market can do the same thing over and over again,” he said. “We have the same exact indicators and now instead of me saying we’re bullish, there’s other YouTubers that are still bullish… humans make the same mistakes over and over again.”

On timing, VisionPulsed pointed to momentum tools — particularly the Stochastic RSI for Bitcoin on multiple timeframes (as a signal for the entire crypto market), as a guide for whether any countertrend rally is just a reset before another leg down. He warned against overconfidence in widely cited catalysts such as a CME gap, noting a similar setup appeared in May 2022, and stressed that rallies repeatedly “fizzle out” when Stoch RSI reaches overbought territory. If the market “plays nice,” he said, it could bounce into overbought levels and then roll into the next decline; if it doesn’t, a rollover could arrive without the clean overbought tag.

He also argued that capitulation lows often coincide with a narrative shock, what he called a “black swan” headline that traders later treat as the cause, even if the market was already structurally headed lower. “Before the black swan, look for the black swan,” he said, pointing to past episodes he associated with prior lows, including the Terra/Luna collapse. He added that the emotional tone shift is often the tell: “Don’t be surprised if a lot of people say crypto’s over, crypto sucks… When that happens, that’s where the bottom is.”

For Dogecoin specifically, VisionPulsed said historical bottoms have tended to align with RSI reaching oversold conditions, something he argues DOGE has not yet hit in the current downswing. “We’re one more leg down away from hitting oversold,” he said. “So, if I were a betting man, I think the next move down… should take Doge to 5 cents.”

He repeatedly caveated that he’s not calling an exact bottom, and allowed for scenarios where a later macro shock produces a second low, similar to the COVID-era pattern he referenced. Still, his base case was that the correction is “probably almost done,” with a larger rally expected after spring, while floating a much longer-dated view that Dogecoin’s “real bull run” could begin around July 2027.

For now, his message to DOGE traders was straightforward: until momentum resets and sentiment fully breaks, the “bear market almost over” narrative may be premature and the next decisive move could be the one that finally forces capitulation.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.09345.