Dogecoin To $3.94 This Cycle? This Chart Says It’s No Meme

In a monthly chart shared on July 8, crypto analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) outlined a long-term bullish thesis for Dogecoin (DOGE), identifying a clear historical pattern that may signal the next major leg in its price trajectory. The focal point of the chart is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension—used as a key projection level—which Kevin implies is Dogecoin’s next major upside target. Based on the chart, this level corresponds to $3.94.

Dogecoin’s price action has followed a remarkably consistent macro-pattern across three major market phases. In each, DOGE formed a clear descending wedge, followed by an impulsive breakout and parabolic rally. These structures are annotated in yellow on the chart and preceded both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. The most recent wedge breakout completed in November last year, with a retest of the breakout currently taking place.

Kevin marks two historical Fibonacci extension levels that were reached following previous consolidations. Both peaked near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of their respective bases—a common target for extended bullish moves in technical analysis. For the current structure, this places DOGE’s long-term Fibonacci target near $3.94, which would represent a roughly 2,218% move from the current price around $0.17.

Indicators further support the notion of a long-term base having formed. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the monthly chart has just reclaimed the neutral 50 zone, currently sitting at 50.39, a signal often interpreted as the transition from bearish to bullish control. In prior cycle, the monthly RSI always topped above 90. Notably, the monthly RSI is also in an uptrend since mid-2022, respecting the yellow trendline drawn by the analyst.

A significant confluence comes from the Stochastic RSI, which has just completed a bottoming crossover in the oversold region. The last time this occurred, in early 2020, Dogecoin followed with a parabolic surge. This same dynamic now appears to be setting up again, echoing the previous cycle.

Also noteworthy is the chart’s structural emphasis on 0.382 Fibonacci retracement support, currently plotted at $0.13778, from which Dogecoin appears to be bouncing. This aligns with the green supertrend support, suggesting a critical local floor has been found.

While the purple zones on the chart above $0.50 are not formal price targets, Kevin clarified in a response to a community member that they are key resistance zones—intermediary checkpoints before DOGE can make a full move toward its final Fibonacci extension. These zones span from approximately $1.00 to $1.20 as well as from $2.30 to $2.50, and eventually up toward the $3.94 range.

Kevin emphasized that “as well as Dogecoin has done this cycle especially compared to other altcoins, it still has not even come close to what it is capable of. That will change in the right environment.” He further noted that Dogecoin has already seen a 10x move from its bear market low to the local highs, but believes “there’s still work to do” when the cycle of quantitative tightening by the US Federal Reserve ends.

The chart and commentary triggered a strong community reaction. Users like @MonetaryRegimee declared “We always hit the 1.618,” to which Kevin replied, “Typically yes,” reinforcing his confidence in the fractal repetition. Others described the current price action as “the calm before the storm.”

Whether Dogecoin ultimately fulfills its fractal-driven destiny toward $3.94 remains to be seen. But the historical technical symmetry laid out by Kevin’s chart offers a compelling case that DOGE’s long-term rally may be far from over.

At press time, DOGE traded at $0.174.