Historical Data Predicts Dogecoin Price Crash In August — But There’s A Silver Lining

The month of August has historically been very bearish for the Dogecoin price, and with the new month rolling in already, expectations are that the meme coin will follow this established trend. If this holds, then the downtrend that has already plagued Dogecoin at the end of July could only be the beginning, and the meme coin could end up falling into double-digit losses from here.

When looking at past performances of the Dogecoin price over the last 11 years, it is no surprise that investors tend to move cautiously during the month of August. So far, a total of 7 out of 11 years have closed in the red, leaving only four years of green closes so far. This performance pushed the median returns to -9.98% with an average of -0.79%, as shown by data on CryptoRank.

While this average is low, looking at the years when August has closed in the red shows a high loss rate. For example, the last three years have seen the Dogecoin price close out at an average of -10%. August 2020 was just coming off the back of the bull market, and eventually fell 9.98%, signaling the end of the bull run.

The next year, August 2023, saw even worse headwinds, and the Dogecoin price crashed 17.9% before the month was over. Then in August 2024, another 16.9% crash rocked the meme coin, leading to three consecutive years of red closes so far.

Amid the bearishness of August, there has been one deviation that has held over the years, and that is the altcoin’s performance following a halving year. The month of August following each Bitcoin halving year so far has been incredibly bullish, returning more than 20% gains in the month.

This was the case for 2017 after the 2016 halving year, when the Dogecoin price rallied 20% in the month of August. Then again, in 2021, following the 2020 Bitcoin halving year, the Dogecoin price would go on to rally 34.2%, suggesting that this year could go in the same direction, since 2024 was a Bitcoin halving year.

However, in both 2017 and 2021, the month of July had closed deep in the red before the August rally. But in 2025, the month of July has already seen an over 35% rally in the Dogecoin price, marking a significant deviation from the trend.

Given this, it is possible that Dogecoin does not follow the post-halving trend. However, sentiment in the crypto market is still very bullish at this level and could drive prices higher. If Ethereum does continue to rally and trigger an altcoin season, then Dogecoin will undoubtedly lead the start of the meme coin rally as the leader in the space.