Historical Risk Levels Say Dogecoin Price Has Not Topped Yet, More Upside Coming?

A new technical analysis is suggesting that Dogecoin’s current rally may still have room to grow. According to crypto analyst Kevin, the historical risk levels that usually mark cycle tops are currently nowhere near flashing red for Dogecoin. 

Chart analysis of Dogecoin’s historical risk levels shows that the meme coin is still sitting in what looks like a mid-cycle phase, and the kind of overheated price action that preceeds exhaustion has not yet appeared.

Kevin’s latest post on the social media platform X showcased Dogecoin’s historical risk levels in a color-coded chart between 0 and 1, with 0 being the lowest risk and 1 being the highest risk. The chart, which covers many cycles going as far back as 2014, shows moments when risk was at extreme levels and prices were near exhaustion. 

Periods of high market exhaustions are classified in warm colors, with red being the highest. For instance, Dogecoin’s all-time high in 2021 was classified by a red risk level. On the other hand, those of low market activity are classified in cool colors, with deep blue being the lowest level of activity.

The current reading of 0.52 is far from those red danger zones, which have historically aligned with blow-off tops. Instead, Dogecoin is currently in what Kevin describes as a mid-cycle state. That assessment aligns with the latest price action, which shows Dogecoin now holding above $0.25 after last week’s consolidation between $0.22 and $0.23. 

With the latest Dogecoin risk level sitting at around 0.52, this suggests that Dogecoin has not yet entered the type of frenzy that often defines the final phase of a cycle. Therefore, it means that the king of meme coin still has a lot of rally to play out, and there’s the possibility of charting a path to a new all-time high if crypto market conditions provide the right backdrop. We have not had that type of price action yet this cycle.

Kevin’s latest update builds on observations he made earlier in August, where he noted the importance of monthly Stoch RSI crosses during bull market environments. Whenever Dogecoin registered such crosses outside of bear markets, the result was a massive upside rally. At that time, the Stoch RSI was climbing from the 13 level, and this is associated with weak momentum turning into strength.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.2554, meaning it is up by about 12.5% in the past 24 hours. Given the current setup and the possibility of a Spot Dogecoin ETF hitting the US market soon, it is reasonable to expect that Dogecoin could climb much higher before it enters the overheated territory. In this case, hitting the $1 price level is not out of the question.