Moon soon? XRP's strongest spot premium aligns with 70% rally setup

Key takeaways:

• XRP’s strongest spot premium phase suggests real buying demand, not just speculative futures trading.

• The number of XRP addresses holding ≥10,000 tokens has steadily climbed, even during recent price pullbacks.

• A falling wedge pattern points to a possible breakout toward $3 to $3.78, with up to 70% upside if confirmed.

XRP (XRP) is experiencing its strongest sustained phase of spot premium in history, a period where the spot market has been consistently trading at stronger levels compared to perpetual futures.

Since 2020, most major XRP price peaks happened when the perpetual futures market was leading, noted market analyst Dom in his May 2 post on X.

XRP’s futures prices being higher than spot signaled excessive speculation and led to sharp price drops.

As of 2025, a spot premium suggests that demand from actual XRP buyers is driving the rally, pointing to a more stable price rise compared to past runs powered by leveraged bets.

Further reinforcing the case for real demand, Glassnode data shows a consistent rise in the number of XRP addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP (the green wave in the chart below) since late November 2024.

XRP’s price has rallied by approximately 350% since then.

XRP’s whale count has risen even during its 35% price pullback between January and April. It suggests that larger holders—often viewed as more patient or strategic investors—are steadily accumulating positions in anticipation of further gains.

Optimism has been fueled by improving odds of spot XRP ETF approval in the US. The US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to drop its lawsuit against Ripple has further boosted the market’s upside sentiment.

Related: SEC punts decisions on XRP, DOGE ETFs

XRP has been consolidating within a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart — a structure defined by downward-sloping, converging trendlines. In technical analysis, this pattern is generally viewed as a bullish reversal signal.

A confirmed breakout requires a clear move above the wedge’s upper resistance near $2.52.

If XRP breaks this level, the pattern’s measured move — calculated from the wedge’s maximum height — suggests a potential rally toward $3.78 by June. This would represent an estimated 70% upside from the current prices.

Conversely, if XRP fails to break above the $2.52 resistance, the price could pull back toward the wedge’s lower trendline. The pattern’s apex near $1.81 may act as the final potential breakout point.

A breakout from the $1.81 level would still keep the pattern’s structure intact, with a potential upside target around $3 by June or July — roughly 35% above current levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.