On-Chain Data Suggests XRP Still Overvalued Despite Weak Price Action — More Pain For Bulls?

The crypto market seems to be returning to its bearish structure as the year’s second quarter has worn on, with large-cap assets taking most of the hit in the past few weeks. With this grim market backdrop, the XRP token has lost nearly 10% of its value over the last two weeks.

What’s interesting is, despite its disappointing recent form, the altcoin is being earmarked as one of the assets overvalued by the market in the moment. According to the latest on-chain data, the XRP token could witness a repricing over the coming weeks.

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, CryptoOnchain hypothesized that XRP appears to have entered the “overvalued” territory. The market analyst said that the altcoin is exhibiting increasing divergence between its network’s market valuation and actual fundamental utility.

This evaluation is based on significant changes in the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, which measures an asset’s network value (market cap) relative to the daily volume transacted on the network. This on-chain indicator provides insight into XRP’s valuation conditions.

According to CryptoQuant data, the XRP NVT ratio has been steadily rising over the past week, posting a 20.3% jump relative to its 3-month baseline. “This structural rise in NVT occurs while the price attempts to consolidate near the $1.33 level,” CryptoOnchain wrote in the Quicktake post.

Typically, a rising NVT ratio suggests that the market or investors are pricing the digital asset higher than the actual value of the assets being transferred on the network, indicating overvaluation. CryptoOnchain, however, noted that the increasing Network Value to Transactions indicator doesn’t tell the complete story.

A look at XRP’s exchange activity shows a dearth of spot market participation; for instance, CryptoQuant data show that Binance inflows and outflows have both fallen by roughly 98% compared to their 3-month averages. Meanwhile, active deposit addresses on the world’s largest crypto exchange have declined by 94%.

According to CryptoOnchain, the combination of the rising NVT metric and a decline in spot market participation suggests that the XRP price lacks fundamental support from active investors or network usage. With this setup, the altcoin is in a dangerous position, which could see its price fall to lower levels as it seeks its fair value.

As of this writing, the price of XRP stands at around $1.32, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.