Price analysis 4/21: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK

The US Dollar Index (DXY) plunged below the 98 level on April 21, falling to a three-year low. That catapulted gold to a new all-time high, and Bitcoin (BTC) also showed strength, rising above $88,000. 

BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes believes it may be the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin below $100,000. Hayes expects the Federal Reserve to announce US Treasury buybacks, which will act as a “Bazooka” for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

The whales seem ready for the move higher, as they have been accumulating in March and April. According to Glassnode data, the number of wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoin increased from 2,037 in late February to 2,107 on April 15.

Could Bitcoin bulls sustain the higher levels, triggering a rally toward $100,000? Will the altcoins follow? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) recovery hit a wall at the 20-day exponential moving average (5,399) on April 14.

The 5,119 level is the critical support to watch out for on the downside. If this level gets taken out, the index could plummet to 4,950. The bulls are expected to vigorously defend the zone between 4,950 and 4,835.

Instead, if the price rebounds off 5,119, it signals that the bulls are trying to form a higher low. The index could then oscillate between 5,119 and 5,500 for a while. Buyers will have to drive the price above 5,500 to signal that the correction may be over.

The US Dollar Index resumed its downtrend on April 21, indicating that the bears remain in charge.

The index could collapse to 97.50, which could act as strong support. The oversold level on the relative strength index (RSI) signals a possible relief rally in the near term. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the zone between 99 and 100.27 on any recovery attempt. If the price turns down from the overhead zone, the index risks a fall to 95.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 100.27 resistance. That indicates solid buying at lower levels. A short-term trend change is likely if buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA (101.64).

Bitcoin made a decisive move higher after days of narrow-range trading, and the price has reached a critical resistance at the 200-day SMA ($88,238). 

The moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover, and the RSI has risen into positive territory, indicating an advantage to buyers. If the 200-day SMA is scaled, it suggests that the BTC/USDT pair may have bottomed out in the near term. The pair could rally to $95,000 and subsequently to the psychologically vital level of $100,000.

The 20-day EMA ($84,176) is likely to act as strong support during any pullback. A break and close below the 20-day EMA signals that the bears are back in the game. The pair may then tumble to $78,500.

Ether (ETH) remains in a downtrend, but the bulls are trying to start a relief rally by pushing the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,659).

The recovery is expected to face selling in the zone between $1,754 and the 50-day SMA ($1,846). If the price turns down from the overhead zone, it heightens the risk of a break below $1,368.

Contrarily, a break and close above the 50-day SMA clears the path for a rally to the breakdown level of $2,111. Sellers are expected to defend the level with all their might because a break above it suggests that the ETH/USDT pair may have bottomed out. The pair may then rise to $2,600.

XRP (XRP) has risen above the 20-day EMA ($2.09), indicating that the bearish momentum has weakened.

There is resistance at the 50-day SMA ($2.21), but if the level is crossed, the XRP/USDT pair could march toward the resistance line. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the resistance line because a rally above it signals a potential trend change.

The $2 level is the crucial support on the downside. A break and close below $2 indicates that the bears remain in command. The pair may then tumble to $1.72 and eventually to $1.61.

BNB (BNB) broke out of the downtrend line on April 21, indicating that the bulls are trying to seize control.

A close above the downtrend line opens the doors for a rally to $645. Sellers will try to halt the up move at $645, but if the bulls do not give up much ground, the BNB/USDT pair may rise to $680.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to quickly pull the price below $566. Such a move indicates that the markets have rejected the breakout above the downtrend line. The pair could then spend some more time inside the triangle.

Solana (SOL) has been gradually climbing toward the $148 to $153 overhead resistance zone, indicating that the bears are losing their grip.

The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bullish crossover, and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. The SOL/USDT pair could rally to $180 if buyers pierce the overhead zone.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from the overhead zone, it suggests that the bears are selling on rallies. That could keep the pair range-bound between $153 and $120 for some time.

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($0.16), indicating that the selling pressure is reducing.

The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a balance between supply and demand. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($0.17) tilts the advantage in favor of the bulls. The DOGE/USDT pair could then rally to $0.21.

The $0.14 level remains the key support to watch out for on the downside. Sellers will have to yank the price below $0.14 to signal the resumption of the downtrend. The pair could drop to $0.13 and later to $0.10.

The bulls are trying to maintain Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.63), signaling a comeback.

The ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.69), which is a crucial near-term resistance to watch out for. If buyers kick the price above the 50-day SMA, it suggests that the corrective phase may be over. The pair could climb to $0.83 and thereafter to $1.03.

If the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, the bulls will try to halt the pullback at the 20-day EMA. If that happens, it increases the possibility of a rise above the 50-day SMA. The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears on a break below $0.58. 

Chainlink (LINK) closed above the 20-day EMA ($12.90) on April 19 and has reached the 50-day SMA ($13.63).

Sellers will try to defend the 50-day SMA, but if the bulls overcome the barrier, the LINK/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally toward the resistance line of the descending channel pattern. The $16 level may act as a hurdle, but it is likely to be crossed.

The first support on the downside is the 20-day EMA and then $11.68. A break and close below $11.68 suggests that bears remain in control. The pair may then slump to the support line, where buyers are expected to step in.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.