Solana following Bitcoin? Network activity, chart pattern point to $300 SOL price

Key takeaways:

• Solana's $9.4 billion TVL is a 54% increase since April 7.

• Solana’s memecoin daily trading volume has more than doubled since early April. 

• A bullish V-shaped recovery pattern projects SOL price to rise toward $300.

Solana’s native token, SOL, surged 86% between April 7 and May 26, following a broader altcoin market rally that also saw Bitcoin hit new all-time highs above $111,000.

Since then, SOL has struggled to break above $180, but onchain and technical data still suggest further gains are in store for the altcoin. Can SOL hit all-time highs above $300?

The total value locked (TVL) on the Solana blockchain has increased by over 54% to $9.44 billion on May 26 from multimonth lows of $6.12 billion on April 7. It’s also up by almost 20% over the last 30 days.

Data from DefiLlama highlighted that the subsequent increase in TVL was led by Raydium, with a whopping 52% increase in a month. Other major decentralized applications such as Jupiter DEX, Jito liquid staking and Kamino Lending gained 12%, 25% and 11%, respectively.

While Solana ranks as the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the Solana network is ahead of the other top layer-1 blockchains in terms of TVL, second only to Ethereum. 

However, Solana’s $9.5 billion TVL surpasses that of the Ethereum layer-2 ecosystem, which includes Base, Arbitrum and Optimism. It is also larger than BNB Chain’s, which integrates seamlessly with Binance and Trust Wallet.

The rise in Solana’s TVL mirrors an increase in memecoin market capitalization as prices recovered across the board.

Most Solana-based memecoins have posted double-digit daily losses in the weekly and monthly timeframes, as shown in the figure below. A majority of these tokens are 50% to 80% from local lows. 

As a result, Solana's collective memecoin market cap increased to $13.4 billion on May 26 from $8.1 billion on April 8, a 65% climb in less than two months.

Related: Solana ‘will make everyone an investor’ — Solana nCMO

This rise in the prices of Solana-based memecoins and market cap was preceded by increasing DEX activity on the layer-1 blockchain.

The increase in memecoin activity on Solana indicates high network activity and rising usage, positively impacting demand and SOL price. 

SOL’s price action has been painting a V-shaped pattern on the weekly chart since January, as shown below.

A V-shaped recovery is a bullish pattern formed when an asset experiences a sharp price increase after a steep decline. It is completed when the price moves up to the resistance at the top of the V formation, also known as the neckline.

SOL appears to be on a similar trajectory and now trades below a supply-demand zone between $180 and $200. A breakout here would increase the chances of the price rising to the neckline at $252 to complete the V-shaped pattern.

Beyond that, the next target would be the all-time high above $295, representing a 66% increase from the current price.

The relative strength index has increased to 53 at the time of writing from 36 at the end of March, suggesting that bullish momentum is picking up.

As Cointelegraph reported, SOL price could rise by 45% with a decisive bullish breakout above $180 in the coming days.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.