Solana Now Retesting Realized Price: Will Shift To Bear Market Happen?

On-chain data shows Solana is hovering around its Realized Price right now, a level that has historically served as the boundary for major trend shifts.

In a new post on X, CryptoVizArt.₿, senior analyst at the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, has discussed about the Realized Price of Solana. The “Realized Price” refers to an indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on a given cryptocurrency network.

When the value of this metric is under the spot price of the asset, it means the holders as a whole can be assumed to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, it being under the coin’s value suggests the overall market is carrying a net loss.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in the Realized Price for Solana over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, Solana had been trading above its Realized Price during the last year or so, which means the cryptocurrency’s holders had been enjoying profits on average.

In the last few days, however, the entire digital asset has been shocked by a crash, and SOL has been no exception. As a consequence of this plunge, the coin’s price has retraced to the Realized Price, implying the holders are now sitting around their break-even level.

Historically, the Realized Price has been a critical level for not just Solana but cryptocurrencies in general. This is because of the fact that investors tend to react more strongly to movements that relate to their cost basis.

During bullish trends, the level can act as support for the asset’s price, as investors are keen on buying ‘dips.’ If the level is lost, however, it signals that the holders are no longer accumulating at their break-even. From the chart, it’s apparent that the last time this type of breakdown took place was in 2022.

Back then, Solana fought to stay above the level for around five months before the bulls finally gave out and the coin slipped under it, kicking off the bear market. It wasn’t until the last quarter of 2023 that optimism around the token returned, and the price was able to recover above the line.

With SOL again retesting this important level, it remains to be seen what trajectory the cryptocurrency will pick this time around. “Failing to hold above this level now could signal a deeper market correction,” notes the Glassnode analyst.

At the time of writing, Solana is trading around $133, down more than 25% over the last week.