Solana Price Prediction: Rising Wedge Breakdown Points to Pain – Can SOL Avoid a 40% Drop? 

Solana now risks a 40% drop against Ethereum, with the breakdown of a multi-month rising wedge pattern dampening near-term Solana price forecasts.

This shift comes despite Solana’s 13% gain in May, with Ethereum surging 45% over the same period, surpassing it as the best crypto to buy.

On the back of the U.S. Court of International Trade’s flip-flop on Trump’s tariff suspension, investment markets remain locked in a state of cautious optimism as FUD persists.

Cooling Speculative Interest Has Hit Solana Hard

The SOL/ETH pair faces a breakdown of a 7-month rising wedge pattern, breaching below its lower support during Thursday trading.

SOL / ETH 1-week chart, rising wedge pattern. Source: TradingView, Binance.

A weekly close below the 50SMA—previously a safety net for false breakdowns—would confirm a bearish continuation, targeting a 40% fall toward 0.036 ETH.

The breakdown in SOL/ETH aligns with a visible decline in meme coin-driven activity on Solana. Revenue from its largest meme coin launcher, Pump.fun, has plummeted since early April.

Fees on the platform peaked during the Q1 post-inauguration rally but have since dropped to near-yearly lows, according to Dune Analytics, reflecting fading speculative demand.

Pump.fun daily revenue from fees. Source: Dune Analytics.

Pump.fun played a major role in Solana’s surge to all-time highs between December 2024 and March 2025, with Trump’s pro-crypto stance sparking widespread risk-on behavior.

During this period, total cumulative fees surged past 3 million SOL. With tariff-driven economic FUD, these levels have not been recovered, weakening one of Solana’s primary value drivers.

A May 27 Standard Chartered report reinforces this narrative, arguing that Solana may underperform if it cannot diversify beyond meme coins, which currently dominate its transaction activity.

Solana’s decentralized exchange volume. Source: Standard CharteredSolana Price Analysis: Is the 40% Drop Inevitable?

The Solana price chart also faces a critical juncture with the potential invalidation of a rounded bottom pattern, currently retesting its baseline resistance at $160.

SOL / USDT 3-day chart, rounded bottom pattern. Source: TradingView, Binance.

As long as $160 holds, the uptrend from the mid-April market bottom remains intact, with the potential to extend another 80% toward the pattern’s $300 target.

However, a breakdown below this level could deepen Solana’s decline, sending it back to the 200SMA and widening the gap with Ethereum—further validating the bearish SOL/ETH setup.

A credible scenario, with the MACD converging towards a death cross and the RSI plummeting towards the neutral line. These momentum indicators suggest sellers dominate the near term.

That said, long-term Solana still remains within the descending channel forming the handle of a 4-year cup-and-handle pattern.

A short-term crash would continue its consolidation, but it is unlikely to invalidate the potential 175% breakout to $460 implied by the broader cup-and-handle formation if a breakout occurs.

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