Solana Rally Over? SOL Risks 2022-Like Correction As Price Erases Mid-Week Recovery

As the broader crypto market retraces, Solana (SOL) has erased its recent gains despite strong institutional demand for investment products based on the cryptocurrency. Some analysts have now suggested that the altcoin risks a deeper pullback similar to its 2022 correction.

On Friday, Solana dropped 7% intraday to retest the $84 area again, retracing most of its intraweek gains. The cryptocurrency had been trading between $78-$88 since the early February crash, attempting to break out of its local range but ultimately failing.

Amid the ongoing market volatility, driven by the US-Israel war with Iran, the altcoin jumped 13% on Wednesday, reaching a multi-week high of $94.05 before stabilizing between the $88-$92 area.

Market observer Trader Tardigrade affirmed that Solana could target the $100 barrier if the breakout confirmed. He noted that the cryptocurrency was retesting the consolidation range breakout area as support, which could form a base for a climb to higher levels.

Nonetheless, SOL’s price has now fallen back into its one-month accumulation range after failing to hold the breakout level on Friday morning. Rekt Capital observed that broader market conditions resemble early-stage Bear Market behavior, which could suggest Solana may be preparing for a deeper correction.

Per the analysis, the altcoin has historically deviated below the $123.28 historical support when it was lost on the monthly timeframe. In 2022, after losing this level, SOL produced a deviation below it and traded below the $99.06 psychological level before rejecting from this area.

Therefore, a new monthly close below both $123.28 and $99.06 could signal that these levels have been officially lost as support. However, it also opens the door to a rally back into them to retest them as resistance, similar to 2022.

Shallow rebounds could lead to rejection from the $99.06 region quickly, he explained. Meanwhile, a stronger relief rally could allow Solana to revisit the $123.28 level before determining whether additional downside continuation is next.

Despite its recent price decline, experts have emphasized the positive sentiment exhibited by traditional investors toward Solana, as evidenced by the performance of investment products that track the altcoin’s price.

In an X post, Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst, stressed that although the cryptocurrency’s price is currently 57% down from when its spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) first launched in July, the category has accumulated $1.5 billion in flows and has “not really given any of it up.”

He noted that half of those inflows have come from institutional investors, which he deemed a “serious investor base” and “really good signs” for the category’s future.

“In reality/history of ETFs launching into that kind of downturn is near impossible to get inflows. Most wouldn’t even make it to age one or two if they went down 57% in the first six months. Timing is very important. Solana is defying physics here,” he explained.

Additionally, he offered a broader perspective by adjusting SOL’s $50 billion market capitalization to Bitcoin’s (BTC) $1.4 trillion market cap. As he detailed, Solana ETFs have seen the equivalent of $54 billion in net new flows, approximately double what Bitcoin ETFs experienced at the same stage post-launch, when BTC was in an uptrend.

However, it’s worth noting that the category experienced its first negative day in over a month on Thursday, with $5.23 million in outflows, according to SoSoValue data.