Was Solana A Q4 2023 “Bubble” That Has Popped?

The crypto market has recently been a roller coaster, especially in H2 2023. Solana, a high-throughput blockchain, emerged as one of the best performers in the top 10 coins by market cap.

In Q4 2023, Solana soared, reaching highs of around $125 before cooling off to spot rates. However, some think the uptrend is over, with SOL edging lower under increasing liquidation pressure.

Lido.eth, while taking to X on January 7, said Solana is a “Q4 2023 bubble” that has “already popped.” The analyst added that this formation doesn’t mean SOL is “worthless or won’t be used anymore.” However, based on Lido.eth’s assessment, the Solana “growth story has ended,” calling serious questions into the project’s immediate potential. 

In H2 2023, Solana grew on renewed interest in the high-performance blockchain. Propelled by rising activity in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) scenes, SOL reversed losses recorded in November 2022.

Moreover, as the crypto community tracked the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and whether they would approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF, altcoins, including SOL, became major beneficiaries.

Arthur Hayes, the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, also believes that the Solana rally is over. In December 2023, Hayes tweeted that he had rotated funds from Solana to Ethereum, citing “divine inspiration.” The BitMEX co-founder also said ETH may rally to reach $5,000 but without giving a specific timeline as to when this lofty target will be reached.

Despite these bearish sentiments, some Solana supporters believe the platform has a “bright future.” They point to the upcoming launch of the Firedancer client. 

This validator client will make the network more robust and increase efficiency. It will aim to decentralize Solana further, making it more reliant by eliminating weak points resulting from client concentration. From a price action perspective, continuing the overall crypto uptrend could also buoy SOL prices in 2024.

Looking at the Solana price chart, the uptrend remains, but sellers dominate, at least in the short term. To quantify, SOL is down 30% from the December 2023 peak when it topped at around $125. 

With prices trending inside the bear bar of January 3, sellers have the upper hand from an effort-versus-result perspective. For the uptrend to resume, there must be a clear, high-volume close above $100. If not, steep losses below $85 might trigger a sell-off that could price toward $60 or worse.