Wave 3 Ignites As XRP Breaks Structure—Analyst Says ‘Fireworks Ahead’

Hours after Ripple Labs said it would abandon its long-running appeal in its securities case with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, watched market technician CasiTrades (@CasiTrades) on X argued that XRP’s price structure has already completed its corrective phase and is “now wave 3 in motion.”

The pseudonymous trader described how Friday’s slide to $2.07 had “tagged” three separate Fibonacci confluence markers—the 0.618 retracement of the March-to-May rally, a 1:1 equality projection for wave C of the prior correction, and a 0.618 extension of sub-wave 5. “The market snapped upward from that exact price,” she observed, before adding: “$2.07 tagged. $2.25 loading. XRP breakout in progress!”

By midday in Europe on Monday XRP was changing hands at $2.19, roughly 4% above Friday’s close and 8.5% higher than a week ago.

That recovery has carried the token to the edge of the next “major test” cited by CasiTrades: the long-monitored $2.25 zone, which she notes coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement measured from XRP’s 2021 swing high. In classical Elliott Wave analysis, a decisive breach and subsequent retest of that level would validate the start of a powerful third wave, the phase in which momentum typically accelerates and sentiment flips decisively bullish.

CasiTrades outlined two near-term paths: either a brief thrust to $2.30 followed by a healthy back-test of $2.25, or a more explosive extension toward $2.45–2.69 before any significant pull-back.

“From here, I’m watching two key scenarios short-term: 1) A move into $2.30, then a pullback to backtest $2.25 as support. This would be ideal and healthy. 2) Or, price pushes harder through to ~$2.45, closer toward $2.69 resistance. Has a small pullback, before touching $2.69 with resistance. In this plan, a backtest of $2.25 later would be expected,” Casi writes via X.

In either scenario, she argues, the structural message is the same: “Flipping that level opens the door for the next full breakout… once these local resistances are out of the way → fireworks.”

The technical argument lands at a moment when a key fundamental overhang appears to be fading. On June 27 Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse announced that the company will withdraw the cross-appeal it filed last year contesting parts of Judge Analisa Torres’s split decision on XRP sales. “We’re closing this chapter once and for all,” Garlinghouse wrote on X, adding that the SEC “was also expected to drop its appeal.” The move came one day after Torres rejected a joint request from both parties to shrink Ripple’s civil penalty to $50 million and dissolve her permanent injunction.

That backdrop helps explain why the Fibonacci “golden-ratio” bounce at $2.07 drew such an emphatic response. But for now, the market’s focal point is whether XRP can turn the $2.25 shelf from resistance into support. If it does, the next cluster of historical supply sits between $2.60 and $2.70—the area that capped rallies in December 2021 and March 2022. A break beyond that zone would leave little chart resistance before psychological milestones at $3.00 and the all-time closing high near $3.40 set in January 2018.

Even so, technicians caution that Elliott Wave targets remain probabilistic, not predictive certainties, and that any new macro-regulatory twist could reset the calculus. Friday’s ruling also left Ripple’s injunction intact, meaning the company must still navigate a compliance regime that did not exist when the lawsuit began in 2020. Whether those realities temper the exuberance around wave 3 remains to be seen.

In CasiTrades’ words, however, timing is everything: “This is exactly why we rely on TA. The charts help us spot setups before the news hits. News hits harder after price has positioned.” For a market that has waited more than four years to see its signature legal saga reach closure, traders appear ready to test that maxim on the road to $2.25—and beyond.

At press time, XRP traded at $2.19.