XRP At Make-Or-Break Technical Zone, Crypto Analyst Warns

XRP is pressing into a confluence of Fibonacci supports that could decide whether the late-2024 rally extends or snaps, according to a one-hour chart shared on X by independent analyst CasiTrades. The token last changed hands at $2.0995 on Binance when the snapshot was published, down 0.16% on the session but hovering only a few cents above the 38.2% retracement of the late-April rally.

Explaining the significance of the current pullback, CasiTrades wrote, “Momentum is starting to pick up, and XRP is dropping to one of the most critical support tests we’ve seen in weeks.” The chart anchors its Fibonacci grid on the $2.3622 swing high set April 28 and the $1.6169 low printed April; 7 from that range, the 38.2% retracement lies at $2.0775, the 50% cutback at $1.9896, and the golden-ratio 61.8% level at $1.9016.

CasiTrades highlights the 38.2–50% corridor from $2.078 to $2.00 as “the key support region”, adding: “This zone has acted as a pivot point in the past, and it’s where we could see the market start to turn if strength returns.”

Price action since the $2.36 high is mapped as a textbook A-B-C corrective pattern. Wave (A) carried XRP below the 23.6% retracement at $2.1863; wave (B) attempted to retest overhead supply but stalled just shy of the peak; and the active wave (C) is sketched by a magenta arrow pointing directly into the $2.00-to-$1.90 pocket. “We may still see one more flush or surprise drop targeting the major $1.90 before momentum shifts,” the analyst cautioned, noting that such moves tend to “move quickly, and by the time it’s obvious, the opportunity will probably be gone.”

Internally, momentum is already hinting at exhaustion. The one-hour RSI has carved successive higher lows from the end of April through early May even as spot prices have edged lower, forming a clear bullish divergence accentuated by a rising black trend-line. The oscillator is drifting just under the 40 handle, suggesting selling pressure is losing force as price drills into support. “On the lower timeframes, RSI is showing signs of selling exhaustion, and the price action is beginning to compress, often a signal that a bigger move is on the horizon,” CasiTrades observed.

Above the market, Fibonacci levels from a broader swing create an orderly ladder of resistance. A crimson band near $2.2559 marks the 38.2% retracement of an earlier macro impulse and is flagged as “.382 major support” turned resistance until reclaimed. Beyond that, the 11.8 percent line crosses at $2.2743, with the prior peak at $2.36 capping the short-term range. “Off these supports, we’re looking for XRP to gain the strength to break past $2.25, $2.68, and beyond,” the analyst told followers, adding, “This is the time to be alert!”

In the comment thread, traders debated whether Bitcoin and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision could deliver the final leg lower. “I’m thinking so too… ideally support tests are met with extreme strength and an impressive recovery,” CasiTrades replied. When asked where he would initiate a long, he advocated a laddered approach: “Ideally you’d ladder, $2.08, $2.00, and $1.90—sub-waves are pointing to $2.00 as the highest probable pivot support.”

At press time, XRP traded at $2.14.