XRP Could Face Big Moves Based On CLARITY Act Outcomes – 3 Key Price Scenarios

A new report released on Monday by market analyst Sam Daodu lays out three potential paths for the XRP price this month, with the deciding factor tied to the US crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act. 

Daodu expects the bill to reach some kind of resolution within the remaining two weeks of April, and he argues that how the next few days unfold could determine whether XRP continues consolidating—or breaks out of its current trading zone.

According to Daodu, the Banking Committee now has about two weeks to schedule a CLARITY Act vote before midterm politics begins to dominate the Senate calendar. In his view, that matters because it creates a narrow window in which major obstacles have been resolved rather than piling up. 

Within XRP trading, Daodu says the token has largely been stuck between roughly $1.28 and $1.45 for most of 2026. For him, April is the month that could decide whether that range continues for the rest of the year or gives way to a more directional move. 

He frames the market’s next step using three scenarios, each tied to events expected to play out during the next two weeks.

In the bullish case, the Banking Committee schedules the markup before May. Daodu argues that even the act of setting a markup date could push XRP higher ahead of any final vote. 

If the bill ultimately passes, he suggests XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows could climb by another $4 to $8 billion on top of the approximately $1.2 billion that spot ETFs have already attracted, even before the legislation becomes law. 

The first technical test would be the $1.45 resistance level. Daodu notes that around 60% of XRP’s circulating supply was bought at that level, creating a “break-even” wall of holders likely to react. If XRP clears that barrier, he points to $1.60 as the next target.

The base case is more measured: roundtable discussions by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) go well, but the committee does not schedule a markup date. In that outcome, Daodu expects XRP to remain inside the same broad band it has been trading for much of the year. 

He does acknowledge that the April 16 roundtable could produce a short-lived lift, but without a concrete markup date, he believes there is no real catalyst strong enough to force a sustained breakout above $1.40. 

Under this scenario, he expects XRP to close April in the $1.30–$1.40 range. While that would still represent a positive month compared with March’s $1.33 close, Daodu characterizes it as only a modest improvement rather than a decisive shift.

The bear case focuses on what happens if the markup slips beyond May and the market decides the delay has moved past “temporary” and into “failed.” Daodu points to the risk of real-world stress adding pressure during that time. 

He highlights that the ceasefire expires on April 22 and that the Islamabad talks already collapsed over the weekend. If tensions escalate again and oil prices climb back above $110, Daodu says XRP could lose the $1.28 support level and potentially slide toward $1.15.

At the time of writing, XRP was trading at around $1.33. If this scenario plays out, that would suggest an additional 13% drop for the altcoin. For now, confirmation on this key regulatory matter for the industry remains pending. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com