XRP ETF Approval Incoming? Analyst Eyes September-October Window

A fresh move by the SEC could clear the path for the first US spot ETFs tracking altcoins like XRP. Traders and investors are watching closely as new rules aim to speed up approvals by late 2025. This change comes just months after in-kind creation and redemption for crypto ETPs won the regulator’s blessing.

According to the recent filing of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, any coin with at least six months of futures trading on a platform such as Coinbase’s derivatives exchange can qualify for an exchange-traded product.

The six-month rule replaces a longer review process that could stretch into 240 days. Instead, exchanges can use a 75-day window once they file a rule change. This shift aims to simplify the path for an XRP ETF and similar products.

The SEC’s “Listing Standards” for crypto ETPs is out via new exchange filing. BOTTOM LINE: Any coin that has futures tracking it for >6mo on Coinbase’s derivatives exchange would be approved (below is list). It’s about a dozen of the usual suspects, the same ones we had at 85% or… https://t.co/QlzZnta7Yv pic.twitter.com/CmBr8XxAcM

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) July 30, 2025

Developments around in-kind creation and redemption also matter. Based on reports from crypto lawyer Bill Morgan, this change lets authorized participants create or redeem ETF shares using actual cryptocurrency rather than cash.

The revision slashes settlement costs and lines up crypto products with how gold and other commodity ETPs work. Market makers can now back ETFs with real tokens, cutting out extra steps.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas has put the chance of an XRP ETF approval at 85% for September or October 2025. He notes that once the six-month futures threshold hits for assets like XRP, Dogecoin and Solana, the path becomes much clearer. Prediction markets back his view, showing odds near 86% even after procedural delays.

Balchunas and his team have tracked every filing and rule tweak. They say these updated listing standards are the last major barrier. With futures already trading for multiple altcoins, issuers need only get the final green light from the SEC. That could happen by early fall, he suggests.

A key hurdle remains the legal fight between Ripple and the SEC. Based on reports, both sides may drop appeals ahead of an August 15 status report deadline. If that happens, it would remove a major overhang on XRP ETF applications.

The SEC has already extended Franklin Templeton’s review through the end of 2025, but this new filing hints those long waits might wrap up sooner.

Legal experts like former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel believe a dismissal of appeals would clear one of the last big obstacles. Then only final SEC sign-off would stand between issuers and live trading.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView