XRP ETF Approval Odds Jump to 95% — Spot Rally Incoming?

Bloomberg analysts now place the odds of an XRP spot ETF approval at 95%, fueling renewed speculation around institutional capital inflows and a potential shift in crypto market dynamics.

Key Takeaways:

• Bloomberg analysts place XRP ETF approval odds at 95%, citing increased SEC engagement.
• Major firms like Grayscale and Franklin Templeton are backing XRP.
• Delays in approval could hurt US competitiveness.

The updated projection shared by ETF specialists James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas follows growing regulatory engagement with multiple crypto ETF filings.

Seyffart noted on X that increasing interaction from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is “a very positive sign,” as applications from major asset managers move forward.

XRP is among a slate of digital assets under review, alongside Solana, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, and others.

The SEC has already acknowledged XRP’s 19b-4 filings, with a final decision expected by October 17, 2025.

Seyffart cautioned that while approval feels inevitable, the timeline remains unclear: “Could be something we’re talking about in the next month or two. Or it could be something that waits until October or later.”

Grayscale, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares are among the firms backing XRP ETF applications, signaling strong institutional support.

Along with Solana and Litecoin, XRP now leads the field in projected approval probability, with others like Cardano, Dogecoin, and Polkadot assigned 90% odds.

The analysts’ outlook reflects a broader trend: the SEC appears increasingly willing to treat many of these assets as commodities, potentially easing their path to regulated products.

Still, the slow pace of movement has raised concern. Industry observers warn that delays could erode the U.S.’ competitive position in digital asset innovation.

NEW: @EricBalchunas & I are raising our odds for the vast majority of the spot crypto ETF filings to 90% or higher. Engagement from the SEC is a very positive sign in our opinion pic.twitter.com/5dh8G8rK6Y

Proponents argue that faster approvals, especially for high-profile assets like XRP, would address rising investor demand and solidify regulatory clarity.

On June 11, VivoPower, a publicly listed firm, announced a partnership with the Flare blockchain to generate yield from its XRP holdings.

The move could indicate that institutional players are looking for ways to leverage their crypto assets without liquidating them.

In May, VivoPower also invested $121 million in XRP as a strategic reserve, making it the first company in the world with an XRP-focused treasury.

XRP is trading around $2.015 as of June 23, showing signs of price compression following a sharp drop from recent highs above $2.30.

The Bollinger Bands across the daily and 30-minute charts are tightening, indicating reduced volatility and a potential breakout setup.

On the 1-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43.68, signaling mild bearish momentum, but not yet oversold.

The MACD remains slightly below the signal line with negative histogram bars, suggesting that sellers remain in control. Price has dropped below both the middle Bollinger Band and the 20-day SMA, which may act as resistance near $2.03 and $2.11.

Zooming into the 30-minute chart, RSI has bounced to 52.19 with a bullish MACD crossover, indicating short-term strength. Support was found near $1.996, and a mild recovery has followed.

In the 1-minute chart, momentum is mixed, with RSI hovering near 41.74 and MACD flattening out after a brief bullish attempt.

If XRP holds above the $2.00 psychological level, a retest of $2.03 resistance is likely. A break below $1.996 could expose lower supports near $1.93.

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