XRP ETF ‘obvious’ as Polymarket bettors up approval odds to 85%

Crypto community members are growing more optimistic about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval following the resolution of a multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 

On March 19, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced the case had concluded. In an X post, the Ripple executive said the SEC will drop its appeal against Ripple, ending the $1.3 billion unregistered securities suit that started in December 2020. 

Following the development, Nate Geraci, president of the advisory firm ETF Store, said on X that the approval of an XRP (XRP) ETF is next. Geraci said it was “obvious” that it’s only a “matter of time” before the SEC approves an XRP ETF. 

The executive predicted that asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity would be involved in offering the asset. 

Aside from Geraci, users on the crypto betting platform Polymarket also expect approval for an XRP ETF in 2025. On March 26, Polymarket gave an 86% chance that an XRP-based ETF product would be approved this year. 

The bet will resolve if an XRP ETF receives approval from the SEC by Dec. 31. At the time of writing, the betting market had a volume of $55,000. 

Polymarket shows an 86% chance that a Ripple ETF will be approved in 2025. Source: Polymarket

However, users only give a 42% chance that an XRP ETF will be approved before July 31.

Despite being a gambling site, Polymarket users’ predictions have historically been very accurate. A Dune Analytics dashboard studying the accuracy of Polymarket bets showed that the platform had been accurate by over 90% a month before betting markets were resolved. 

Related: SEC plans 4 more crypto roundtables on trading, custody, tokenization, DeFi

Despite being a huge milestone, the end of the multi-year legal battle between Ripple and the SEC failed to move the markets significantly. On March 19, XRP traded at $2.32, according to CoinGecko. At the time of writing, the asset hovers at around $2.44, a 5% increase. 

On March 21, analysts said the new development had already been priced in. Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen, previously told Cointelegraph that the resolution had been widely expected. 

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