XRP Faces Crucial Test With ETF Approval Chances Now At 87%

According to market reports, two ETF decisions are coming up in October. Grayscale faces an Oct. 18 deadline, while Canary is set for Oct. 24.

A Polymarket poll, which has roughly $150,000 in assets, shows approval odds rising to 87% from an August low of 64%.

Some traders say those odds are helping prices because investors expect the US regulator to wrap up multiple ETF filings around the same time, as was the case with spot Bitcoin and Ethereum approvals earlier this year.

Reports have disclosed strong flows into crypto funds, and analysts point to those moves when discussing potential XRP demand.

XRP rose 3% on Tuesday to $2.80, pulling back from this week’s low of $2.68. The move trimmed part of a slide that has pushed the token about 23% below its year-to-date peak of $3.6654.

Traders told market watchers they were watching the pair of ETF deadlines on the calendar as one reason for the bounce.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have taken in over $54 billion in inflows, while Ethereum funds show about $13 billion. Existing XRP-related ETFs from providers such as Teucrium and ProShares have pulled in millions in assets, according to filings and industry commentary.

The newly launched CME futures for XRP reached more than $1 billion in open interest quickly, a pace that has been noted by some market participants as a sign of appetite for XRP trading exposure.

XRP fell from a July high of $3.66 to roughly $2.80 recently. That drop is being read by some technicians as part of a falling wedge pattern, which many chart readers view as a bullish formation.

Meanwhile, regulatory timing is uncertain. The US regulator has postponed related ETF decisions multiple times, and another delay is possible.

Broader market weakness could blunt demand even if approvals arrive. Reports and market commentaries caution that past outcomes for Bitcoin and Ethereum do not automatically guarantee identical results for XRP, given differences in market structure and history.

According to exchange data and polls, sentiment has shifted toward a higher chance of approvals, and that shift appears to be supporting price action this week.

Still, traders say it will take clear confirmations — either from regulatory filings or strong fund flows — to extend gains beyond the current bounce.

For now, XRP sits between support near $2.68 and the $4 target that would signal a more sustained move higher.

Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView