XRP Faces High Risk Of Breakdown Below $1.30, Expert Flags Bitcoin As Main Threat

XRP has climbed back above the $1.40 mark this week, a level that previously acted as resistance, but analysts warn that the rally does not eliminate the risk of a deeper pullback. 

The cryptocurrency’s most critical support zone at $1.30 remains under pressure, and broader market forces—particularly Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action—could determine what happens next.

In a recent report, analyst Sam Daodu described $1.30 as the most heavily tested support level for XRP so far in 2026. Since February, the token has repeatedly slipped into the low $1.30 range, only to find buyers stepping in before a decisive breakdown could occur. 

According to Daodu, a key reason XRP has continued to defend this area is that it is slightly lower, around $1.27. On-chain cost basis data indicates that roughly 443 million XRP were accumulated at that price level. 

As the market approaches this entry point, many of these holders have added to their positions, creating buying pressure that has consistently pushed the price back above $1.30. 

For now, Daodu sees XRP trading within a clearly defined range, with $1.30 acting as the floor and $1.50 serving as resistance. The analyst said a meaningful shift in trend would require a breakout beyond one of those levels, and the direction of that move will likely depend on external catalysts.

Bitcoin stands out as the most significant variable. XRP and BTC are currently moving in close alignment, with a reported correlation of 0.84. Historically, XRP has tended to magnify Bitcoin’s price swings by roughly 1.8 times. 

In practical terms, that means a 10% decline in Bitcoin could translate into an 18% drop for XRP. Daodu cautions that if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 again, XRP would likely follow, regardless of the token’s individual fundamentals or technical structure.

Geopolitical factors are also contributing to market fragility. Rising tensions in the Middle East have already sparked risk-off sentiment across the crypto market in early March. 

Should the situation worsen, Daodu said investors could reduce exposure to more speculative assets first, placing additional pressure on altcoins such as XRP.

On the upside, a sustained breakout above $1.50 would likely require more than just stability in Bitcoin. Historically, altcoins gain momentum when Bitcoin advances decisively, drawing fresh capital into the broader market. 

Daodu posits that XRP is no exception; a strong upward move in BTC could provide the tailwind needed for the altcoin to attempt surpass higher resistance levels.

Between $1.58 and $1.60 lies a substantial supply zone. Approximately 2 billion XRP were purchased at those levels, leaving many holders underwater for months. 

As the price approaches that range, investors seeking to exit at breakeven could generate heavy selling pressure, the analyst reported. Clearing $1.50 would signal renewed strength, but absorbing supply closer to $1.60 may prove to be the more difficult challenge.

At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.41, marking a 3% loss over the previous 24 hours. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com