XRP futures open interest surges by 32% — Are traders bullish or bearish?

Key Takeaways: 

• XRP has gained 25% since April 7, and its open interest has risen by 32%.

• Positive spot market activity contrasts with a neutral futures funding rate, highlighting a tug-of-war between traders.

• Analysts still have double-digit price targets for XRP.

XRP's (XRP) price fell to a year-to-date low of $1.61 on April 7, but has gained 25% over the past two weeks as the broader crypto market recovered and XRP open interest surged.

The altcoin’s open interest surged 32% from $3.14 billion to $4.13 billion between April 21 and 23, signaling the return of derivatives traders. Futures OI increasing alongside the price indicates a bullish sentiment, but data from the Velo painted a different picture. 

Based on the negative aggregated premium on open interest, the XRP futures market continued to bid against an XRP price rise. The funding rate remained near 0, implying a neutral stance between the bulls and bears. 

The aggregated spot tape cumulative volume delta became positive in April. This indicator measures the net difference between aggressive buy and sell trades across various exchanges. When it turns green and rises above zero, it indicates increasing buying pressure, with market buy trades surpassing sell trades.

Despite rising futures interest, the data suggests XRP’s price remains caught in a tug-of-war between bullish spot market activity and bearish perpetual futures.

Related: Price predictions 4/23: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, SUI

Following XRP’s price pump, Sistine Research, a crypto investment community, posted a bold prediction for XRP, forecasting a long-term target between $33 and $50. The prediction is based on a higher time frame (HTF) symmetrical triangle that mirrors 2017’s 2,600% rally. The platform suggested that an optimistic target may drive prices as high as $77-$100.

For context, XRP is currently valued at $2.23 with a market cap of $131 billion. A $33 target increases the market cap to ~$2 trillion (1,400 %+), which is more than Bitcoin’s current market cap. 

From a lower-time frame (LTF) perspective, XRP shows an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which could potentially test the resistance range between $2.50 and $2.67. The resistance range also coincides with the Fibonacci extension levels drawn from the neckline's base to the head's lowest point.

Although the relative strength index (RSI) is nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential pause in price movement at the current range.

Related: XRP Ledger Foundation spots ‘crypto stealing backdoor’ in code library

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.