XRP Price Breaks Resistance, But ETF Flows Warn Bulls

XRP price climbed from around $1.11 to $1.14 during the past week, briefly testing resistance near $1.16 before easing back despite its bullish prediction. The move looked constructive, but buyers are now facing a key ceiling. A decisive break above recent highs could open the door toward $1.32. Otherwise, the rally risks fading as short-term traders lock in profits.

The latest advance follows nine consecutive weeks of net inflows into XRP investment products, totaling about $17.2 million. However, the pace of fresh inflows has slowed. The most recent weekly figure fell to roughly $12 million, suggesting institutional demand remains positive but is no longer accelerating.

Price can lead fund flows for a while, yet that relationship becomes less reliable when inflows begin to cool. As a result, traders chasing strength should watch whether demand catches up. If it does not, momentum could fade even if the technical picture still appears healthy.

Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act and the U.S. regulatory outlook remain important catalysts for XRP. Clearer rules could strengthen institutional conviction and support another leg higher. On the other hand, delays or weaker-than-expected progress may encourage investors to stay cautious despite the recent price recovery.

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XRP is working through a potential cup-and-handle pattern that has been developing since early July. However, the neckline now sits closer to the $1.16 to $1.17 area. The recent consolidation since July 21 still resembles the handle, provided buyers defend the current support. Meanwhile, lighter selling volume during the pullback suggests profit-taking rather than aggressive distribution.

Support is clustered around $1.12 to $1.13, where recent lows have attracted buyers. A stronger floor sits near $1.05 if selling pressure increases. On the upside, immediate resistance stands between $1.16 and $1.18, followed by $1.32. A breakout above that level could expose the next resistance near $1.46.

The earlier breakout from the $1.14 area came with a noticeable jump in trading volume. That move established a benchmark for meaningful market participation. As a result, traders will likely watch for another volume spike before treating any breakout as sustainable.

The bullish case calls for XRP to reclaim and hold above $1.18 on a daily close. If buying momentum strengthens, the price could revisit $1.32 before testing $1.46. The base case keeps XRP trading between $1.12 and $1.18 as traders wait for fresh regulatory or macro catalysts.

The bearish prediction emerges if XRP price closes below $1.12 on rising volume. That would weaken the handle setup and increase the risk of a move toward $1.05. MVRV data also adds an interesting twist. Negative 30 day and 365 day MVRV readings suggest many holders remain underwater, a condition some contrarian investors see as an opportunity rather than a warning.

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