XRP price may drop another 40% as Trump tariffs spook risk traders

The XRP (XRP) market is flashing warning signs as a bearish technical pattern emerges on its weekly chart, coinciding with macroeconomic pressures from anticipated US tariffs in April.

Since its late 2024 rally, the XRP price chart has been forming a potential triangle pattern on its weekly chart, characterized by a flat support level mixed with a downward-sloping resistance line.

A descending triangle pattern forming after a strong uptrend is seen as a bearish reversal indicator. As a rule, the setup resolves when the price breaks below the flat support level and falls by as much as the triangle’s maximum height.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

As of March 28, XRP was testing the triangle’s support for a potential breakdown move. In this case, the price may fall toward the downside target at around $1.32 by April, down 40% from current price levels.

XRP’s descending triangle target echoes veteran trader Peter Brandt’s prediction. He warned of a possible decline to as low as $1.07 due to a “textbook” head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: Peter Brandt

Conversely, a rebound from the triangle’s support level could lead the price toward its upper trendline at around $2.55. A clear breakout above this resistance level risks invalidating the bearish structures altogether, instead sending the price toward the previous high of $3.35.

The broader market, meanwhile, has turned increasingly cautious in response to President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on auto imports, set to go live on April 3.

These tariffs are likely to result in higher prices for US manufacturers and consumers. The February 2025 US CPI report already showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase.

Related: Is altseason dead? Bitcoin ETFs rewrite crypto investment playbook

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem estimated that these tariffs might contribute approximately 1.2 percentage points to inflation, with about 0.5 percentage points stemming from direct effects and 0.7 percentage points from indirect effects.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates to a target range of 400–425 basis points in June has fallen to 55.7% as of March 28, down from 67.3% a week earlier and 58.4% just one day ago.

Target rate probabilities for the June Fed meeting. Source: CME

A delayed rate cut would reduce the flow of capital into speculative markets, stalling momentum for XRP and other digital assets that thrive in a low-rate, risk-on environment.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.