XRP Price Prediction: 71% Crash Sparks Oversold Reversal Bets as XRP Denies $1 Breakdown

The decline has pushed momentum indicators toward oversold territory, while a sharp increase in XRP Ledger activity is giving some analysts a reason to watch for a possible relief bounce.

XRP price reached a record high of about $3.66 in July 2025. By August 2026, its price had fallen to around $1.01, leaving the token more than 70% below its peak. Independent historical price data confirms the $3.66 high on July 18, 2025, while recent market data places XRP close to $1.

The magnitude of the correction has created a divided market. Bears continue to point to a persistent downtrend and weak moving averages, while some traders argue that the extent of the sell-off and emerging on-chain activity could support a short-term recovery.

The psychological $1 level has become the immediate focus for the XRP price prediction.

Recent trading has kept XRP close to this threshold after the token failed to reclaim higher resistance zones. A previous technical analysis published by Brave New Coin identified $1.05 as an important former support level that had turned into resistance after the breakdown. The same analysis highlighted $1.00 as a major psychological and technical area.

XRP may be nearing a reversal as weekly RSI shows early bullish confirmation, with $1.00 as key support and $1.40 as the potential upside target. Source: Mrbigman via on TradingView

The distinction matters because holding $1 would allow buyers to establish a base after months of declines. A sustained move below it, particularly on strong volume, would instead weaken the argument that the current level represents a durable floor.

TradingView technical analyst Mrbigman described the setup as a potential bottom but stopped short of treating a reversal as confirmed.

“XRP looks like we will get a reversal soon,” the analyst wrote, while adding that the $1 level needs to hold. The analysis identified $1.40 as a potential upside target if the support zone remains intact.

That view is not yet supported by the broader trend. TradingView’s technical overview currently carries a sell rating for XRP, with the one-week and one-month readings also leaning bearish.

The latest technical readings show why the market is beginning to discuss a possible XRP reversal.

The supplied TradingView snapshot places XRPUSD near $1.007, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index at approximately 35.76. That reading is below the midpoint and approaching the conventional oversold threshold of 30, but it does not by itself establish that a bottom has formed.

XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

Other oscillators are more constructive. Stochastic %K was near 17.92 and generated a buy signal, while the Commodity Channel Index stood near -131.71, also indicating an oversold condition. Williams %R was around -84.

At the same time, the bearish evidence remains substantial. Momentum and MACD were both producing sell signals, while the Average Directional Index near 18.3 indicated relatively limited trend strength.

The moving-average structure is even clearer. The 10-, 20-, 30-, 50-, 100- and 200-period averages were all above the market in the referenced snapshot. The EMA 10 was around $1.034, EMA 20 near $1.052, EMA 50 around $1.093, EMA 100 near $1.174 and EMA 200 around $1.366.

That configuration means XRP would need to recover through several layers of resistance before a short-term bounce could be interpreted as a broader trend reversal.

On-chain activity provides another part of the current XRP price picture.

Data cited by Ali Martinez shows XRP’s daily active addresses rising from 23,642 on August 1 to 43,543 later in the month. That represents an increase of roughly 84%.

The chart illustrates XRP’s sustained drawdown from late 2025 through mid-2026, highlighting the depth of the correction and emerging signs of a potential reversal. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Santiment defines daily active addresses as the number of unique addresses participating in token transfers during a given day. The metric is therefore useful for measuring network activity, although a rise in addresses does not automatically translate into higher token prices.

The increase is nevertheless notable because it comes while XRP remains close to a multi-month low. Higher network participation alongside depressed prices can indicate renewed engagement, although the underlying activity needs to persist before it can be treated as a meaningful change in market demand.

XRP’s on-chain activity strengthened in August, with daily active addresses averaging about 35,700 versus 26,400 in July, while August 11 recorded the network’s highest activity since early June. Source: Santiment Intelligence via X

Santiment has also documented longer-term growth among larger token holders. In May, the analytics platform reported an all-time high of 332,230 wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP, extending a growth trend that had been developing since June 2024.

These metrics do not establish that a rally is imminent. They do, however, provide evidence that network participation and larger-holder distribution have not simply collapsed alongside the XRP price.

Some traders are taking the sharp correction as evidence that XRP may be entering a zone where risk-reward conditions become more attractive.

Crypto analyst pAulseperformance identified a broad $1.00-$0.65 area as a potential accumulation zone and suggested that a rebound toward $2 could follow if buyers establish control. The analyst also offered a more conservative approach: wait for the price to break its downtrend and then retest the breakout level.

The analyst views the $0.65–$1.00 range as a potential accumulation zone, with a possible rebound toward $2.00 or a retest of previous highs. Source: pAulseperformance on TradingView

That distinction is important. Buying near support and waiting for confirmation represent two very different strategies, particularly while the longer-term chart remains bearish.

The analyst cited in the source material argued that ripple’s token could be approaching a reversal as weekly RSI begins to show signs of improvement. The proposed target was $1.40, but the analysis also acknowledged that a loss of $1 could expose the next support region.

The range of views reflects the uncertainty surrounding the current XRP forecast. Some traders are positioning for a bounce based on oversold conditions, while trend-following indicators continue to favor sellers.

For a more credible bullish case to develop, XRP first needs to defend the $1 area and reclaim nearby resistance.

The immediate technical reference points include roughly $0.99-$1.00 on the downside and the $1.05-$1.09 region above. The latter area is important because it contains the former $1.05 support and several short-term moving averages. A stronger recovery would then need to challenge the $1.15-$1.16 region, followed by the broader $1.20-$1.24 resistance area highlighted in earlier analyses.

A move above those levels would provide more convincing evidence that the market structure is changing. Until then, an oversold reading should be treated as a potential condition for a bounce rather than proof that XRP has bottomed.

The current XRP price therefore sits at a pivotal point. The token has already absorbed a drawdown of more than 70% from its 2025 peak, while network activity has strengthened and several oscillators are flashing early buy signals. Yet the broader trend remains bearish, with the price below major moving averages and momentum indicators still under pressure.

For now, the $1 level is the clearest dividing line. Holding it could give buyers an opportunity to build a recovery base. A decisive breakdown, by contrast, would weaken the reversal thesis and shift attention toward lower support levels. The next phase of the XRP price prediction will depend less on how oversold the token looks and more on whether buyers can turn that condition into sustained price strength.