XRP Price Prediction: FOMC Rate Hike Sparks Short Covering as XRP Reclaims $1.30 Support

The latest XRP move comes after the September 16 FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%. The decision marked the first U.S. rate increase since 2023 and added another layer of uncertainty for cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive assets.

The XRP price has recovered around the $1.30 area after a sharp decline earlier in the week. BNC data currently places XRP near $1.30, with the token recently coming under pressure alongside a broader cryptocurrency sell-off.

XRP short positions are being closed after accumulating ahead of the September 16, 2026, FOMC meeting. Source: CW via X

Crypto analyst @CW8900 highlighted a shift in XRP perpetual futures positioning, reporting that short positions built ahead of the FOMC meeting were being closed. Short covering occurs when traders repurchase an asset to exit bearish positions. When concentrated short positions are closed over a short period, the resulting buying can provide additional upward pressure.

The positioning change is important because it came immediately after a major macroeconomic event. The Federal Reserve delivered the widely watched 25-basis-point increase, but the accompanying policy message remained restrictive.

For the XRP price prediction, the distinction between short covering and fresh long positioning is particularly important. A reduction in bearish exposure can support a rebound without necessarily confirming a broader trend reversal.

The Federal Reserve said the FOMC decision was unanimous, with policymakers raising the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The central bank said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remained elevated. It added that the decision was intended to support a “timelier return” to its 2% inflation goal.

The Fed just raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, and its latest projections point to one more 25-bps hike this year. Source: @ShadowAIphaX via X

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also emphasized the persistence of inflation. AFP reported that Warsh described inflation as having remained “too high” for too long, reinforcing the central bank’s focus on price stability.

The updated projections point to another potential increase in 2026. The Federal Reserve’s September projections show a median federal funds rate of 4.1% at the end of 2026, compared with 3.6% in the June projections.

Financial markets responded with higher Treasury yields and weakness in U.S. equities. Reuters reported that the S&P 500 fell 1% and the Nasdaq declined 0.7% following the decision, while Treasury yields moved higher.

That backdrop remains relevant for XRP today because tighter monetary conditions can affect liquidity and risk appetite across cryptocurrency markets.

On the technical side, XRP is attempting to move back above a Point of Control near $1.2862, according to the TradingView analysis shared by @CW8900.

The Point of Control represents the price level where the highest volume was traded within the measured range. XRP’s previous rejection around the $1.30 area therefore makes the current test significant from a market-structure perspective.

XRP is attempting to break above the $1.2862 Point of Control after a bearish shift, while a sharp RSI rise signals renewed buying momentum. Source: CW via X

The same analysis shows the Relative Strength Index beginning to rise after XRP’s sharp decline. A rising RSI can indicate improving momentum, although the indicator alone does not establish a confirmed trend reversal.

TradingView’s broader technical snapshot remains cautious. The aggregate reading shows 13 sell signals, 10 neutral readings, and three buy signals. Moving averages account for much of the bearish bias, while the oscillators are predominantly neutral.

The 14-period RSI stands at 43.82, keeping it below the midpoint but outside traditional oversold territory. The MACD generates a sell signal, while the 10-period momentum indicator is also negative.

This leaves the XRP price chart caught between improving short-term momentum and resistance from several moving averages.

The technical picture becomes clearer around the $1.35 area.

TradingView’s classic and Fibonacci pivot calculations place the central pivot at approximately $1.354. XRP is currently below that level, meaning a sustained move above the zone would change the short-term technical structure.

XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

The shorter moving averages remain another obstacle. The 10-period EMA is around $1.345, while the 20-period EMA is near $1.347. The 30-period EMA sits around $1.325.

These levels create a relatively tight resistance cluster between roughly $1.32 and $1.35.

Above that zone, the Camarilla resistance levels stand at $1.445, $1.510, and $1.575. The Fibonacci pivot system places its first resistance at $1.626.

On the downside, the Camarilla levels identify support around $1.314, $1.249, and $1.184. The classic pivot system places its first major support at approximately $1.011.

These levels do not represent fixed XRP price targets. Instead, they provide reference points for traders assessing whether the current rebound is gaining or losing momentum.

A separate three-month XRP analysis highlights the $1 psychological level as an important long-term reference.

The chart identifies several forms of technical confluence around that area, including three-month support, a swept low, a previously broken high, and an engulfing candle close.

XRP’s $1 level is showing strong higher-timeframe support, reinforced by multiple technical confluences. Source: @Carolinatcwnl via X

The analysis argues that XRP’s deep retracement following a major resistance rejection does not automatically establish a longer-term bearish structure. Instead, the higher-timeframe candle close is presented as a more important signal than a short-lived bounce.

That distinction matters for the XRP price prediction because the token has experienced several sharp moves around psychologically important levels in 2026.

XRP fell below $1 in August before recovering. CoinDesk reported that the token briefly dropped to about $0.98 on August 18, its lowest level since November 2024, before subsequent price recovery.

The $1 level therefore remains a useful reference for assessing the broader structure, while the $1.30 area has repeatedly attracted attention as a nearer-term support and resistance zone.

The immediate XRP price prediction hinges on whether the token can hold above the $1.30 area while improving momentum develops.

A move above the $1.2862 Point of Control has already placed XRP back near an important volume-based reference. However, the broader technical snapshot remains mixed, with most short-term moving averages still generating sell signals.

The first technical hurdle is the $1.32-$1.35 region. A sustained move through that area would bring the central pivot near $1.354 into focus. Conversely, renewed selling around the current levels could send XRP back toward the $1.25 area identified by the Camarilla calculation.

The broader macro backdrop also remains restrictive. The Fed’s latest projections show policymakers expecting the federal funds rate to remain elevated, while the central bank continues to describe inflation as above its 2% objective.

As a result, the recent short covering should be distinguished from a confirmed bullish reversal. For now, XRP is showing evidence of renewed buying interest around $1.30, but the combination of FOMC tightening, resistance near $1.35, and bearish short-term moving-average signals leaves the next directional move dependent on price confirmation.

At the time of writing, CoinDesk data shows XRP around $1.30 with a market capitalization of roughly $81.9 billion and 24-hour trading volume near $2.6 billion.

The current setup leaves the XRP price at a technically important point: short positions are being reduced, momentum indicators are showing some improvement, but XRP still needs to reclaim higher resistance levels before the technical picture becomes materially stronger.