XRP Price Prediction: XRP Faces Critical Resistance Near $1.17 Despite Ripple Securing Landmark EU License

While the company secured a full MiCA license that expands its operations across the European Economic Area, market indicators suggest traders remain focused on whether XRP can overcome resistance near $1.17 before a stronger recovery can begin.

The current XRP price remains caught between improving fundamental developments and a broader bearish market structure. Technical indicators point to a neutral short-term outlook, while longer-term trend signals continue to favor caution despite growing optimism surrounding Ripple’s expanding regulatory footprint.

In one of the biggest pieces of Ripple news this month, the company received a full Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) license under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework from Luxembourg’s financial regulator on July 6, 2026.

Ripple secured a full MiCA CASP license from Luxembourg, enabling regulated crypto custody, exchange, and transfer services across the European Economic Area. Source: @BSCNews via X

The approval upgrades Ripple’s preliminary authorization granted in June and enables the company to provide regulated crypto services—including custody, exchange, and digital asset transfers—throughout all European Economic Area (EEA) member states under a unified regulatory framework.

The latest authorization increases Ripple’s global regulatory approvals to more than 75, reinforcing its strategy of building compliance-first payment infrastructure for institutional clients. The milestone also places Ripple alongside other major crypto firms that have secured MiCA licenses as Europe moves toward a harmonized digital asset market.

Although the regulatory achievement strengthens Ripple’s long-term business outlook, the price of XRP has yet to reflect the positive development in a meaningful way, with traders continuing to prioritize technical levels and broader market sentiment.

From a technical perspective, the XRP price prediction remains largely dependent on whether buyers can reclaim the major resistance zone around $1.1718.

After posting a modest rebound following weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, XRP has climbed toward the Murray [4/8] level, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band. However, analysts note that the broader bearish trend remains intact after two consecutive months of declines.

XRP remained in a broader bearish trend despite a modest rebound, with the token testing the key $1.1718 resistance after two consecutive months of declines. Source: John_Isige on TradingView

A confirmed move above $1.1718 could improve the short-term outlook and open the path toward $1.2695, followed by $1.3671.

On the downside, failure to overcome resistance would leave sellers in control. A break below $1.0742 could reinforce bearish momentum and expose additional support levels near $0.9765 and $0.7812.

According to the latest TradingView technical data, XRP was trading around $1.1254, down roughly 1.65% during the latest session. The combined technical summary remains neutral, although longer-term indicators continue to lean bearish.

XRP price chart. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin 

Momentum oscillators offer little conviction in either direction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) stands at 49.05, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure without overbought or oversold conditions.

Meanwhile, the Stochastic %K reads 76.38, approaching higher territory but still classified as neutral. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI-20) sits at 51.84, while the Average Directional Index (ADX-14) measures 20.92, suggesting the current trend lacks strong directional momentum.

Other momentum indicators also reflect a mixed picture. The Awesome Oscillator remains slightly positive at 0.01529, while the MACD (12,26) posts -0.01470 but continues to generate a buy signal, hinting that bullish crossover momentum could be developing. However, the Momentum (10) indicator at 0.07945 and Bull Bear Power at 0.04423 still produce sell signals, highlighting lingering selling pressure beneath the surface.

While shorter-term moving averages support recent price action, longer-term trend indicators continue to present a more cautious outlook.

The EMA-10 (1.11585), EMA-20 (1.11814), SMA-10 (1.09960), SMA-20 (1.09964), SMA-30 (1.12141) and VWMA-20 (1.10135) all remain below the XRP current price, generating short-term buy signals.

However, several longer-duration averages continue to act as overhead resistance. The EMA-50 (1.18033), SMA-50 (1.18582), EMA-100 (1.28224), SMA-100 (1.28982), EMA-200 (1.49187) and SMA-200 (1.47081) all remain above the market, reinforcing the broader bearish structure. The Hull Moving Average (9) at 1.16765 also signals weakness, while the Ichimoku Base Line at 1.15026 remains neutral.

This divergence suggests that although short-term buying interest has improved, the broader trend has yet to shift decisively in favor of bulls.

Despite the current consolidation, some market analysts continue to highlight XRP’s long-term resilience.

One widely shared two-week chart shows XRP consistently forming higher lows during previous bear market cycles while repeatedly finding support near its 2-week 200-period moving average, currently positioned around $0.85.

XRP continues to form higher lows while holding above its 2-week 200 MA near $0.85, with a tightly coiled RSI suggesting a potential cycle-bottom breakout. Source: MTG_MindTheGap on TradingView

The same analysis notes that the two-week RSI remains compressed inside a tightening wedge pattern. Historically, similar breakouts have coincided with major cycle turning points, although no confirmation has emerged yet.

Some market participants believe XRP could outperform during the next broader crypto market expansion if the long-term trend remains intact. However, those projections remain dependent on future market conditions and should be viewed as long-term scenarios rather than near-term expectations.

The latest Ripple XRP news presents two contrasting narratives. Fundamentally, Ripple continues to strengthen its global regulatory position through its latest MiCA approval, expanding access to one of the world’s largest regulated crypto markets.

From a technical standpoint, however, XRP price today remains constrained below the key $1.17 resistance area. Until buyers establish a sustained breakout above that level, the broader bearish structure remains intact despite improving fundamentals.

For now, traders are likely to monitor whether XRP can reclaim resistance between $1.15 and $1.17, while also watching support near $1.07 for signs of either renewed weakness or the beginning of a more durable recovery.