XRP Price Prediction: XRP Risks $0.97 as Price Remains Trapped Below Key EMAs

The weakness has left the XRP price vulnerable to another decline, with technical levels around $0.99 and $0.97 emerging as important areas to watch.

The token was trading around $1.00 on August 15 after attempting to stabilize near the psychological support level. Recent price action has failed to establish a sustained recovery above nearby resistance, keeping the short-term outlook cautious.

Technical data from TradingView shows the asset trading below its 21-period and 55-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) on the 4-hour chart. A broader indicator reading also shows a strong bearish bias across moving averages, although some shorter-term oscillators suggest selling pressure may be becoming stretched.

Meanwhile, on-chain activity provides a more balanced picture. Large holders have continued accumulating tokens, while activity on the XRP Ledger has risen despite extremely weak social sentiment. That divergence could become relevant if buyers manage to defend the $1 area.

The latest 4-hour setup places the cryptocurrency below the 21-EMA at approximately $1.0087 and the 55-EMA near $1.0236. The latter is particularly important because a sustained recovery above it would challenge the current bearish structure.

XRP remains in a downtrend, with repeated rejections from the mid-band and a bearish break below the 1.0128 pivot keeping price below that level. Source: TradingView

The technical analysis identifies a bearish break of structure (BoS) below the $1.0128 pivot. Since that breakdown, the price has remained underneath the level, suggesting previous recovery attempts have not yet changed the sequence of lower highs.

TradingView’s broader readings reinforce the cautious outlook. The combined indicator summary contains 16 sell signals, nine neutral readings, and only one buy signal. Moving averages account for most of the bearish reading, with 14 sell signals, one neutral reading, and no buy signals.

The market also remains below several longer-term averages. The 50-period EMA was cited near $1.086, while the 100- and 200-period EMAs stood around $1.168 and $1.359, respectively.

The wide gap between the current market level and these averages suggests that a meaningful trend reversal has yet to develop.

The $1 threshold is now more than a psychological reference point. Technical calculations place immediate support around $0.993, while the 4-hour analysis identifies $0.9915 as a key swing low.

A decisive break below that area could strengthen the existing bearish structure.

XRP, as the price remains capped by overhead EMAs and the $1.00 level continues to serve as fragile support. Source: DomicChaina on TradingView

The 4-hour setup places the lower edge of the current volatility band near $0.9947, followed by approximately $0.9862 as another downside reference. If selling accelerates, the $0.9700 area could become the next major level.

That makes $0.97 a technically relevant downside zone rather than a predetermined price target. Confirmation would require a sustained break of support rather than a brief move below it.

A 4-hour close beneath $0.9915 would provide stronger evidence that sellers are extending the decline.

The opposite scenario would emerge if the token reclaims $1.0236 on a closing basis. That level corresponds with the 55-EMA and would represent a meaningful improvement in the short-term structure.

Momentum indicators remain tilted toward sellers, although they do not indicate outright capitulation.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood near 34.7 in the TradingView readings. That places it below the midpoint but still above the conventional oversold threshold of 30.

Other indicators show more pronounced weakness. Stochastic %K was around 13, while Stochastic RSI Fast was near 6. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI), meanwhile, stood around -118.6 and generated a buy signal, suggesting that the recent decline may have pushed short-term conditions toward oversold territory.

Momentum and MACD remained negative. Momentum was around -0.075, while the MACD level was approximately -0.025, both pointing to subdued buying strength.

This creates a mixed short-term picture. The moving averages remain firmly bearish, while some oscillators suggest a relief bounce is possible without necessarily confirming a broader trend reversal.

On-chain data provides a notable counterpoint to the weak technical setup.

According to Santiment data cited by market analyst Ali Martinez, large holders accumulated more than 72 million XRP over a 24-hour period while the asset traded near $1. The development was also reported by Blockonomi, which noted that major holders were increasing their balances as the market remained below several key moving averages.

Santiment data shows whales accumulated more than 72 million XRP in 24 hours, lifting large-holder balances to 12.18 billion tokens as the price hovered near $1 support. Source: Ali Martinez via X

The accumulation is notable because it occurred while the cryptocurrency was trading close to the lower end of its recent range. Data discussed alongside the Santiment figures also showed wallets holding at least 1 million tokens increasing their balances, with large holders adding hundreds of millions of coins over the preceding weeks.

However, accumulation alone does not confirm an imminent recovery. Large-holder balances can change for several reasons, and buying activity does not guarantee that prices will rise in the short term.

The more useful signal is the divergence between ownership behavior and market performance. If accumulation continues while selling pressure fades, it could provide a stronger foundation for a recovery.

Santiment has also highlighted a significant divergence between social sentiment and network activity.

Its analysis said sentiment had reached a notably bearish level as the asset traded below $1, while activity on the XRP Ledger remained elevated. Santiment described the combination as a potential “counter-signal” for bulls, while emphasizing that price structure still needs to improve before a reversal can be established.

XRP social sentiment fell to a three-month bearish extreme as the price remained below $1, reflecting heightened retail pessimism. Source: @SantimentData via X

The underlying data showed XRP Ledger active addresses reaching 49,929 over 24 hours, the highest level in more than two months.

That matters because increased network activity indicates that participation has not disappeared during the decline. It does not, by itself, prove that buyers are returning, but it suggests that the underlying network remains active despite widespread market frustration.

The divergence therefore offers a more balanced view. Price action remains weak, and sentiment is deeply negative, but blockchain activity and large-holder balances are showing signs of resilience.

Institutional demand also presents a more complicated picture.

U.S. spot ETFs had accumulated substantial assets earlier in 2026, but combined assets fell below $1 billion in July as the underlying cryptocurrency declined. Data reported by Yahoo Finance showed total assets across seven funds at roughly $996 million on July 10, following a slowdown in daily inflows.

A decline in ETF assets does not necessarily mean investors are aggressively selling. Fund assets can fall simply because the underlying cryptocurrency loses value.

That distinction was evident in July when U.S. spot funds recorded $6.78 million in net inflows on July 16. Bitwise accounted for $4.41 million, while Franklin Templeton attracted $2.38 million, according to reported fund-flow data.

The ETF picture therefore remains mixed. Institutional vehicles continue to attract capital on some sessions, but the overall asset base remains sensitive to movements in the underlying market.

From a technical perspective, the next phase of the XRP price prediction is likely to depend heavily on the $0.99-$1.00 region.

A successful defense could allow the token to stabilize and attempt another move toward $1.01-$1.02. The first meaningful improvement would come from reclaiming the $1.0128 structure level, followed by the 55-EMA near $1.0236.

XRP price chart. Source: Brave New Coin

A sustained move above $1.0236 would weaken the current bearish setup and potentially shift attention toward higher resistance levels.

The downside scenario is clearer below the support. A confirmed break under $0.9915 would expose approximately $0.9862, while continued selling could bring the $0.9700 region into focus.

The broader pivot structure also places support near $0.993, followed by a deeper level around $0.926. A failure to defend the $0.99 area could therefore widen the current trading range.

For now, the available evidence does not establish that the asset must fall to $0.97. Instead, that level becomes relevant if the existing support structure fails.

The XRP price forecast remains divided between weak technical momentum and improving signs from on-chain participation.

The token is still below major EMAs, the bearish BoS remains intact, and several momentum indicators continue to favor sellers. These factors keep downside risk elevated around the $1 psychological threshold.

At the same time, whale accumulation and increased XRP Ledger activity suggest that market participation remains significant. Santiment’s data shows that negative sentiment has become unusually strong even as network activity rises.

The key question is whether the $0.99-$1.00 region can hold. A breakdown would strengthen the case for $0.9862 and potentially $0.97. A recovery above $1.0128, followed by a sustained move through $1.0236, would provide evidence that sellers are losing control.

Until either scenario develops, the asset remains caught between fragile support and a dense layer of overhead resistance. The next confirmed break should provide a clearer indication of the near-term direction.