XRP price top is in? Network metrics put 385% rally at risk

Key takeaways:

• Over 70% of XRP’s realized cap was accumulated near recent highs, echoing previous market top patterns.

• XRP’s active address count has plunged over 90% since March 2025, signaling reduced transactional demand.

• A falling wedge pattern points to a potential 25% drop toward key support at the $1.76 level.

XRP (XRP) has rallied more than 385% since late 2024, but fresh onchain analysis warns that this surge may have attracted buyers at increasingly vulnerable levels.

More than 70% of XRP’s realized market capitalization — a measure of the XRP value based on the price at which each token last moved — has been accumulated between late 2024 and early 2025, according to Glassnode.

The realized cap of the 3-to-6-month group — a younger coin age band — has risen since November 2024, including dramatic increases witnessed after January 2025, when the XRP price peaked at around $3.40.

This top-heavy market structure is historically fragile, as newer investors tend to be more sensitive to price swings, often triggering sharper sell-offs during corrections.

In late 2017, XRP saw a massive influx of capital from young coins just before peaking near $3.55, followed by a prolonged 95% drawdown.

The pattern repeated in 2021, when another sharp rise in the realized cap by short-term holders preceded a nearly 80% decline, raising the possibility that XRP may have formed a local top in January 2025 and will continue declining in the coming months.

XRP’s number of active addresses spiked sharply in March 2025, hitting record levels. Since then, activity has dropped by over 90%, returning to levels seen before the breakout.

Historically, similar divergences between rising prices and falling onchain activity — seen in late 2017 and early 2021 — have appeared near local market tops.

Related: XRP price fails to respond to two extremely bullish developments — Here is why

While it’s not a guaranteed warning sign, the sharp drop in active addresses could mean fewer people are using XRP to send or receive funds, and more are just holding.

XRP's weekly chart shows the price consolidating within a falling wedge pattern.

As of May 26, the cryptocurrency was showing signs of entering a short-term correction cycle after failing to break above the wedge’s upper trendline.

A broader pullback could push the XRP price toward the wedge’s lower trendline if the recent price action is any indication.

The lower trendline aligns with the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) near $1.76, down about 25% from the current levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.