XRP Stalls Below Key Resistance, But Setup Aligns For An Elliott Wave Finish

XRP is showing signs of hesitation after a strong rebound, struggling to push past key resistance levels. The recent price action fits neatly within an Elliott Wave pattern, suggesting the market may be entering its final consolidation phase before the next major move unfolds.

CasiTrades, in a recent market update, explained that following last Friday’s sharp wipeout, prices managed to rebound impressively, but that momentum now appears to be losing steam. According to the analyst, such pauses are natural after strong moves. In Elliott Wave Theory (EWT), this type of slowdown aligns with Wave 4, a stage where the market consolidates before preparing for the final impulsive wave.

The analyst emphasized that markets rarely pivot directly after a major Wave 3 decline. Instead, they often complete an exhausted Wave 5 move to wrap up the impulse cycle before a fresh uptrend begins. However, CasiTrades noted that the market has not yet shown the kind of strength needed to invalidate the final dip. 

Price action is currently stalling around Wave 4 resistance levels. If the market were truly in a sharp V-shaped recovery, it should have already cleared the $2.82 resistance mark with strong momentum, but that has yet to happen. Given these conditions, the analyst believes that the market may still need one more wave down to fully exhaust selling pressure and reset sentiment. 

CasiTrades went on to emphasize that market data across exchanges has become highly inconsistent, making accurate analysis challenging. The analyst pointed out that each trading platform displayed a different low during the recent crash, with some pairs dipping below $1, while others managed to hold at much higher levels. With this disparity, CasiTrades advised traders to focus on the exchange they are personally trading on to ensure precision, as there is no “universal” XRP chart.

According to the analyst, on Binance USD, XRP’s price wicked as low as $0.77, marking a sharp 72% drop from local highs and falling below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. While CasiTrades believes such extreme lows are unlikely to repeat, the next potential retracement levels around $1.46 (0.618 Fib) and the golden pocket near $1.35 remain key areas of interest. These zones align with multiple technical factors, including Wave 5 extensions, macro Fibonacci retracements, and Wave 2 targets.

The analyst explained that if XRP were to retest these deeper levels, it could trigger a powerful reversal, potentially setting the stage for the long-anticipated impulsive wave that targets the $6.50 to $10.00 range. 

Despite the chaos caused by the recent market crash, CasiTrades sees a potential silver lining. She noted that the crash might have shifted XRP’s structure from a shallow Wave 4 correction to a broader macro Wave 2 retracement, which may precede the strongest impulse waves in the cycle.