$1B Liquidated as Bitcoin Hits 12-Day Lows, Casting Doubt on ‘Uptober’ Rally – is BTC Dead?

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed to 12-day lows below $115,000 on Monday, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations within 20 minutes and marking the largest liquidation cascade of 2025.

The sudden price drop generated $1.7 billion in total liquidations over 60 minutes, with $1.01 billion coming from long positions as overleveraged traders faced margin calls.

The crash undermined optimism around “Uptober,” Bitcoin’s historically bullish October performance, where the asset has gained value 10 out of 12 times since 2013.

Bitcoin hasn’t posted an October loss since 2018’s 3.8% decline, with massive gains of 48% and 40% during bull market years 2017 and 2021, respectively.

Crypto markets lost $80 billion in total capitalization as Bitcoin fell to $114,270, while Ethereum dropped over 4% below $4,300 to two-week lows.

The sell-off occurred during Sunday night’s low-liquidity session, when thin order books amplify price movements and create conditions for cascading liquidations.

Despite the carnage, institutional flows remained positive with $1.9 billion entering digital asset investment products last week, driven by Bitcoin’s $977 million and Ethereum’s $772 million inflows, according to the latest CoinShares report.

Total assets under management reached a year-to-date high of $40.4 billion, positioning the market to match or exceed 2024’s $48.6 billion inflows.

The liquidation event primarily targeted heavily leveraged long positions concentrated between $113,000-$114,000 price levels, where traders had accumulated maximum risk exposure.

Bitcoin liquidation heatmaps revealed over $100 million in long positions wiped out as the price dipped under $115,000, with most damage occurring in tight clusters around key psychological levels.

The magnitude of liquidations exceeded March’s previous record, with over 95% coming from bullish bets rather than short positions.

Some analysts described the event as a necessary market cleansing, where overleveraged positions needed to be flushed to reset the market structure for future advances.

They believed the purge was a healthy market correction, clearing excessive speculation before potential fourth-quarter rallies.

The reset eliminated weak hands while creating opportunities for institutional accumulation at lower price levels, potentially setting the foundation for sustained advances.

Low weekend liquidity amplified the impact as institutional traders remained offline, leaving retail positions vulnerable to cascading margin calls.

The Sunday night session historically produces outsized moves due to reduced participation from major market makers and institutional liquidity providers.

As it stands now, traditional “Uptober” optimism faced scrutiny amid conflicting analyst predictions, with some warning that seasonal trends appeared “less likely this year” given macro headwinds.

At the same time, some analysts also maintained a bullish outlook, expecting markets to sink to $112,500 before October’s “explosive final leg.”

Bitcoin faces its most significant technical test since April’s uptrend began.

According to Ali Chart, a prominent market analyst, the 4-hour inverse head and shoulders formation around $112,800 suggests potential recovery, with measured move targets reaching $129,000-$130,000 if the pattern completes successfully.

However, historical cycle analysis comparing 2025 to 2021 patterns indicates Bitcoin may be in wave 4 correction within a larger impulse structure.

The cyclical framework suggests current weakness is following a pattern of normal corrective behavior before a final wave 5 advance, which could either go up or down depending on various catalysts, though timing remains uncertain.

Are you ready?$BTC pic.twitter.com/SLt9Fm0338

This setup can also be viewed from a slightly more balanced perspective, as Bitcoin’s test of the ascending trendline that supports the entire uptrend from the $75,000 lows.

Daily chart analysis reveals this trendline faces its first serious challenge, creating a binary setup where Bitcoin must hold support or face accelerated declines toward $92,500-$95,000 levels.

Bitcoin’s immediate fate hinges on defending the ascending trendline support around $110,000-$112,000, with successful defense potentially triggering relief rallies toward $118,000-$120,000.

However, a decisive break below this critical support would invalidate the bullish trend structure and likely accelerate declines toward $95,000-$100,000 levels, representing 17-20% downside from current prices.

The $1 billion liquidation event may have cleared excessive leverage, creating conditions for stabilization.

However, broader market sentiment and institutional responses to current levels will determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its uptrend or faces extended corrective pressure into the fourth quarter.

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