$1M Bitcoin in 2026 Would Signal US Economic Crisis, Not Victory: Galaxy CEO

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has pushed back on predictions that Bitcoin could hit $1 million in the near term, warning that such a move would likely reflect a collapse in the US economy rather than a crypto success story.

Key Takeaways:

• Mike Novogratz warned that a $1M Bitcoin would likely signal U.S. economic collapse rather than a crypto victory.
• He criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for failing to curb rising debt and deficits.
• Novogratz voiced concern that Bitcoin treasury adoption is turning into a bubble as more companies rush in.

“People who cheer for the million-dollar Bitcoin price next year, I was like, guys, it only gets there if we’re in such a shitty place domestically,” Novogratz told Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast on Wednesday.

“I’d rather have a lower Bitcoin price in a more stable United States than the opposite.”

Novogratz explained that extreme currency devaluations often fuel demand for alternative safe havens, and Bitcoin, often dubbed digital gold, becomes a hedge against economic turmoil.

However, he cautioned that such conditions would come at the expense of civil society.

His comments echo past warnings from analysts who stress that parabolic price moves often accompany instability. In July 2023, trader Scott Melker, known as Wolf Of All Streets, told Cointelegraph Magazine: “The faster it happens, the worse the world is.”

Still, speculation around a $1 million Bitcoin by 2026 continues to swirl. Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder, has repeatedly predicted BTC could climb between $750,000 and $1 million within two years, and more recently suggested a $250,000 target by the end of this year.

Beyond price forecasts, Novogratz also expressed concern over the U.S. fiscal outlook. He criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, appointed under President Donald Trump, for failing to rein in the country’s soaring debt.

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“As much as I like Scott Bessent and I think he meant everything he said, he’s failing at bending debt to GDP. The deficit is going to be higher, not lower,” he said.

Novogratz also raised alarms about the rapid growth of Bitcoin treasury adoption, noting that Galaxy Digital receives around five calls a week from companies looking to put BTC on their balance sheets.

“At one point, that’s what bubbles feel like, when the cab driver asks you about the balance sheet company,” he said.

His remarks come as concerns grow that only a handful of corporate Bitcoin treasuries will endure, with venture firm Breed recently warning that many may face a “death spiral” if market conditions sour.

A growing number of publicly traded companies are raising hundreds of millions of dollars to build crypto treasuries, but one analyst says many aren’t actually buying digital assets from the open market.

As reported, crypto analyst Ran Neuner claimed that crypto treasury firms are acting less like buyers and more like exit vehicles for crypto insiders.

Instead of purchasing assets directly from exchanges, these companies often receive crypto contributions from existing holders, in exchange for shares that later trade at massive premiums on public markets.

Skepticism around the sustainability of the crypto treasury trend is also growing.

Last month, Glassnode lead analyst James Check raised concerns over the longevity of the corporate Bitcoin treasury strategy, arguing the easy gains might already be gone for new entrants as the market matures.

The warning echoes recent comments from Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, who has voiced concerns over the Bitcoin treasury strategies adopted by some publicly traded firms.

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