3 Reasons Bitcoin Price Rally Is At Risk – Details

Bitcoin emerged as an investors’ favorite this past week, recording a price rise of 4.07% according to data from CoinMarketCap. During this price surge, the premier cryptocurrency traded as high as $66,000, a level last reached in late July. However, despite this price gain which extends Bitcoin’s “unusual” positive performance in September, certain market conditions indicate concern over the sustainability of this rally.

In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Wenry outlined several reasons Bitcoin may not sustain its current upward trend.

Firstly, Wenry notes that there is a lack of interest from retail investors in Korea and the US as indicated by a stagnant Taker volume. This status is different from previous Bitcoin price rallies where retail activity in these countries was prominent. Therefore, the analyst postulates that the current price surge is devoid of new investments and is likely driven by a select group of market participants.

Furthermore, Wenry highlights there is currently a high level of Open Interest in the BTC market, but the asset continues to move in a range-bound market i.e. consolidation due to a low spot volume. The combination of both factors reflects the absence of a significant buying interest in Bitcoin despite the present rally.

Another point of concern raised by Wenry states the current Bitcoin price gain is caused by a rise in derivatives trading due to macroeconomic factors such as the reduction of interest rates. The crypto analyst pinpoints a lack of equal support from the spot market therefore, the rally is likely a “temporal uptick rather than a structural market shift”.

In conclusion, Wenry states that the absence of significant spot market volume, a stagnant Taker volume, and low retail participation all threaten the longevity of Bitcoin’s current rally. Notably, if retail investors remain away from the market, Bitcoin would likely remain in consolidation or even experience a price correction.

On another front, popular analyst Michaël van de Poppe has backed Bitcoin to surpass its all-time high price of $73,750 in the last quarter of 2024, following a similar trajectory with gold. Van de Poppe’s prediction seems quite plausible as Q4 is traditionally the most bullish moment for Bitcoin. In addition, the renowned analyst is also backing altcoins to experience a 3-5x price surge in the same period.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin continues to trade at $65,810 following a 0.40% gain in the last day. In tandem, the asset’s daily trading volume is down 53.16% and valued at $65,649.