A Rare Bitcoin Signal Is Flashing: Could the Bull Run Just Be Getting Started?

Bitcoin’s market price has experienced renewed downward pressure, falling to just under $106,000 in the last 24 hours. This marks a 1.8% dip over the past day and places the asset approximately 6% below its all-time high of over $111,000 reached last month.

While the correction is not severe compared to historical volatility, it highlights ongoing uncertainty in the market as BTC consolidates near record highs without sustained upward momentum.

One metric drawing attention amid this price movement is the Puell Multiple, a tool used to evaluate whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to miner income.

CryptoQuant analyst Gaah highlighted that while prices recently surged above $108,000, the Puell Multiple remains below 1.40, a level typically associated with discounted or non-euphoric market phases.

This decoupling between BTC price and miner revenue offers insight into how recent gains may be more demand-driven than organically supported by on-chain mining fundamentals.

The Puell Multiple measures the daily issuance of BTC in USD terms relative to its 365-day moving average. Historically, readings below 1.0 are seen during market bottoms or accumulation phases, indicating undervaluation.

Gaah points out that current readings hovering around 1.40 suggest miner profitability is still lagging, even as the asset trades near historic highs. This pattern contrasts with previous bull cycles where high prices were often accompanied by elevated miner earnings, driven by both network activity and block rewards.

This disparity may be due in part to the April 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. While halving events typically drive price appreciation through reduced supply, they simultaneously put downward pressure on miner revenue.

In this case, despite a climb in market price, the halving’s impact continues to suppress income for miners, implying that the price increase has not yet been accompanied by the kind of broader economic expansion that would traditionally drive a full-fledged bull market.

Gaah also points to the possibility that external factors may be playing a more dominant role in driving recent price action. These include increasing institutional inflows through spot Bitcoin ETFs, as well as a tighter circulating supply as long-term holders reduce active selling.

These forces could be supporting price without necessarily boosting miner profitability in the short term, especially if the uptick is concentrated in secondary market demand rather than new BTC issuance.

The current environment may signal a unique window for participants analyzing Bitcoin’s valuation. A high market price combined with conservative fundamentals suggests the market is not yet in a speculative excess phase.

If miner revenues eventually rise in line with growing demand, driven by either increased transaction fees or broader network usage, it could support further upside. As such, both technical and fundamental indicators may continue to evolve in the coming months, offering a clearer view of whether the current cycle has more room to run.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView