Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Pullback to $90K Before Fed-Backed Stablecoins Trigger Next Rally

Bitcoin could dip to $90,000 before climbing to new highs, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who sees a brief correction ahead of a fresh rally powered by US bank-issued stablecoins.

In a Thursday blog post, Hayes outlined a scenario where central bank policy and Wall Street incentives converge to push trillions of dollars into digital assets.

Arthur Hayes argues that the market has not yet priced in the transformative impact of fully regulated, dollar-backed stablecoins issued by too-big-to-fail banks like JPMorgan.

These coins, he suggests, will not just rival existing players such as Tether or Circle’s USDC, but will become critical tools for absorbing bank reserves and retail deposits now stranded in low-yield accounts.

"Quid Pro Stablecoin" is a discussion on how US banks adopting stablecoins can provide $6.8 trillion of buying power for The BBC's shitty treasuries.https://t.co/QHqgZAPv0J pic.twitter.com/pcejYZ8Urx

Hayes argues that the launch of such stablecoins would effectively function as a new form of liquidity injection, similar in impact to quantitative easing, without requiring formal Fed action.

By enabling banks to funnel retail money into short-term Treasury bills without triggering capital rule penalties, these tokens would unlock a new wave of liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks.

But before that happens, Hayes sees a period of volatility. Citing historical cycles and market sentiment, he predicts that Bitcoin may fall to $90,000 as speculators take profits and traders wait for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve.

Still, he remains bullish over the longer term, noting that once Wall Street moves in with tokenized dollars, capital flows will accelerate.

The forecast comes as stablecoins return to the spotlight, with US lawmakers advancing bipartisan proposals that could give federal approval to banks issuing tokenized dollars.

Last month, the US Senate passed the long-anticipated GENIUS Act with broad bipartisan backing, marking the most comprehensive crypto legislation to date.

Approved by a 68–30 vote, it represents the Senate’s first move toward a dedicated regulatory framework for stablecoins, one of the fastest-growing segments in the digital asset space.

Hayes believes that this regulatory direction hands legacy banks a strategic edge. Not only do they already have massive retail networks and regulatory compliance structures, they also have direct access to the Federal Reserve. This makes it easier for them to profit from turning deposits into short-term Treasuries through stablecoin issuance.

He estimates that if banks shift even part of their $17t in deposits into stablecoin products, it could create $6.8t in new demand for US government debt. Combined with changes in how the Fed pays interest on reserves, that shift could flood markets with fresh liquidity, fuelling asset inflation across crypto and equities alike.

Until then, Hayes sees the coming dip as a buying opportunity. He believes that once USD-backed stablecoins from major banks enter the market, they will unlock a wave of liquidity that could send Bitcoin and other risk assets sharply higher. In his view, the arrival of these tokens will mark the start of a new phase in the market cycle.

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