Bitcoin 3–5 Year Holders Slow Selloff—Waiting for Higher Prices?

On-chain data shows the veteran investors of the Bitcoin market have shown exhaustion recently, but they still hold 11.9% of the supply.

In a new post on X, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Realized Cap of the 3 to 5 years old Bitcoin investors. The “Realized Cap” here refers to an indicator that measures BTC’s total value by assuming the ‘real’ value of any token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

Since the previous transfer for any coin is likely to correspond to the last point at which it changed hands, the price at the time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the Realized Cap is nothing, but the sum of the acquisition prices of all tokens part of the circulating supply.

In other words, the indicator represents the total amount of capital that the investors as a whole used to purchase their coins. A modified version of the metric, known as the Realized Cap HODL Waves, keeps track of the same, except for just a particular segment of the sector.

In the context of the current discussion, the investor cohort of interest is the 3 years to 5 years one. This group includes all the holders who have been keeping their coins dormant since between three and five years ago.

Now, here is the chart for the Realized Cap of the cohort shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in its value over the last couple of years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap controlled by the 3 years to 5 years investors hit an all-time high (ATH) share of 15.7% back in November. But soon after this peak formed, these investors started a sharp selloff, taking advantage of the profitable opportunity that the rally presented.

Then in January, the group paused its selling, but resumed it again in April, suggesting some of these resolute hands took the exit door during the latest price rally. A zoomed in view of the chart reveals, however, that the selling may have most recently hit a state of exhaustion once more.

That said, while the supply has shown the start of a potential sideways phase, it doesn’t mean that the 3 years to 5 years investors no longer pose a threat to Bitcoin. The cohort still holds 11.9% of the asset’s Realized Cap, which is quite significant.

These diamond hands are likely waiting for higher prices, so it’s possible that this supply would start being distributed if the bull run continues, perhaps acting as a source of resistance.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $105,800, down over 3% in the last seven days.