Bitcoin at $62,500 and Waiting: Could Trump Iran Peace Deal Trigger a Major Rally?

Bitcoin is trading at $62,500, up by 4% from last week’s dip below $60,000 but still sitting nearly 40% below its all-time high. The BTC price recovery has been tentative, held back by a Fear & Greed Index reading in extreme fear territory. Now, Trump spoke about the Iran peace deal that could catapult the market.

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters after attending the NBA Finals in New York on Tuesday that a deal to end the war with Iran could be reached in “two or three days,” and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “immediately” afterward.

Trump on Iran deal: Two or three days.. we have a very good chance of doing it. pic.twitter.com/t7MgG1ecA9

For a Bitcoin market starved of macro catalysts, this geopolitical trigger could finally unlock the relief rally. But it’s not the first time Trump has teased the market with a peace deal; this has happened 37 times, per CNN.

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The Strait of Hormuz carries 17–20 million barrels of crude per day, or 20% of global oil consumption, making it the single most critical energy chokepoint on the planet. A credible deal that reopens it immediately hits oil prices.

Lower oil feeds directly into inflation expectations. Cooler inflation expectations shift the Federal Reserve’s rate path calculus, softening real yields. A softer real yield environment weakens the U.S. dollar and loosens the liquidity conditions that have been strangling high-beta assets since mid-2025.

Bitcoin, sitting at the top of the risk spectrum, captures that rotation first and fastest. When Trump declared Netanyahu would have “no choice” but to accept a U.S.-brokered Iran agreement earlier this month, Bitcoin surged 5% to $64,000 in a single session, with Bitcoin ETF inflows reportedly topping $999 million across two days and cumulative spot ETF AUM hitting a 2026 record of $109 billion.

The counter-argument is valid. A headline-driven BTC moves mean-revert fast when structural confirmation doesn’t follow. Trump has previously predicted the Iran conflict would last four to six weeks, and it has now crossed 100 days.

The ceasefire frayed again over the weekend as Iran fired missiles toward northern Israel and Israel responded with what it described as a “large-scale strike on strategic defense systems.” Netanyahu said Tuesday the war “has not yet ended.”

The Iran-Israel situation just escalated fast.

Here's where things stand:

Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, but Trump says no one was hurt.

Israel is now asking the US for approval to strike Iran's energy sites, per Walla News.

Trump is trying to stop it… pic.twitter.com/SQDmrNyrLZ

Skepticism is warranted. But with volatility compressed to 30-day readings of just 8% and the Fear & Greed Index at its lowest print in months, even a partial credibility premium attached to a formal deal announcement could produce violent short-covering.

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Bitcoin is currently wedged between immediate support at $62,000 and the next downside level at $61,500. On the upside, resistance clusters at $64,000 and $65,000. RSI is running at approximately 42, with the signal line sitting near 48, a 6-point gap between the two as sellers still have marginal control. Subdued volatility plus extreme fear is a classic setup for explosive moves in either direction when a macro trigger lands.

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